123
closed trades
41%
win rate
-110.97
total pnl ($)
1.056
weight
7d window — n=21 wr=43% pnl=-31.28
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-04 02:56:13 (24.2d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
bh
n: 129
· wr: 42.6%
· total_bps: -1070.8
· mean_bps: -8.30
· sharpe: -0.06
· max_dd_bps: -2176.8
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 22:00 | ADA | Buy | 0.147207→0.144412 | -9.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 17:09 | ATOM | Buy | 1.5863→1.5973 | +3.14 | timeout |
| 06-27 07:52 | INJ | Buy | 4.86782→5.02184 | +15.33 | take_profit |
| 06-27 01:07 | XRP | Buy | 1.04616→1.04684 | -0.10 | timeout |
| 06-26 11:45 | ARB | Buy | 0.0727982→0.0714064 | -10.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 02:12 | XRP | Buy | 1.04096→1.02113 | -9.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 00:55 | XRP | Buy | 1.02976→1.03974 | +4.46 | timeout |
| 06-25 11:33 | ATOM | Buy | 1.65571→1.62378 | -10.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 08:44 | ADA | Buy | 0.147587→0.149533 | +6.09 | timeout |
| 06-24 16:51 | LINK | Buy | 7.37864→7.23267 | -10.34 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 10:10 | ADA | Buy | 0.150408→0.147479 | -10.17 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 08:35 | ADA | Buy | 0.152358→0.150572 | -6.21 | timeout |
| 06-24 00:38 | SOL | Buy | 68.9743→70.0125 | +7.18 | timeout |
| 06-23 16:32 | SOL | Buy | 68.6363→69.0006 | +2.28 | timeout |
| 06-23 06:20 | ADA | Buy | 0.15862→0.155563 | -10.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 00:37 | ADA | Buy | 0.15923→0.15862 | -2.19 | timeout |
| 06-22 11:35 | SUI | Buy | 0.710278→0.732877 | +15.44 | take_profit |
| 06-22 08:06 | SUI | Buy | 0.695664→0.708753 | +8.91 | timeout |
| 06-21 21:09 | ADA | Buy | 0.162251→0.159151 | -10.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 16:00 | ADA | Buy | 0.16149→0.162199 | +1.70 | timeout |
| 06-21 07:57 | ATOM | Buy | 1.79895→1.77546 | -6.83 | timeout |
| 06-20 23:55 | ATOM | Buy | 1.78555→1.79895 | +3.25 | timeout |
| 06-20 13:23 | ARB | Buy | 0.0843411→0.0827179 | -10.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 07:39 | ADA | Buy | 0.16182→0.163319 | +4.14 | timeout |
| 06-19 23:36 | ADA | Buy | 0.16153→0.16194 | +0.85 | timeout |
| 06-19 15:29 | ADA | Buy | 0.15991→0.16111 | +3.34 | timeout |
| 06-19 07:33 | ATOM | Buy | 1.80425→1.82074 | +4.19 | timeout |
| 06-18 23:31 | ADA | Buy | 0.162491→0.163299 | +1.99 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.65416→6.5261 | -10.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 05:08 | ADA | Buy | 0.167052→0.163847 | -9.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 19:39 | OP | Buy | 0.107967→0.105881 | -10.14 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 15:16 | ATOM | Buy | 1.9869→1.9854 | -0.85 | timeout |
| 06-17 07:14 | ADA | Buy | 0.172783→0.171607 | -3.81 | timeout |
| 06-16 20:39 | OP | Buy | 0.106627→0.110152 | +16.05 | take_profit |
| 06-16 15:07 | OP | Buy | 0.106567→0.106653 | +0.09 | timeout |
| 06-16 07:06 | ADA | Buy | 0.178485→0.178235 | -1.13 | timeout |
| 06-15 22:25 | AVAX | Buy | 6.95844→6.82488 | -10.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 14:59 | BNB | Buy | 617.114→627.343 | +7.84 | timeout |
| 06-14 21:40 | AVAX | Buy | 6.45971→6.66313 | +15.30 | take_profit |
| 06-14 17:38 | AVAX | Buy | 6.60825→6.48154 | -9.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 12:15 | BNB | Buy | 609.192→611.177 | +1.16 | timeout |
| 06-14 04:11 | AVAX | Buy | 6.71578→6.70072 | -1.58 | timeout |
| 06-13 20:01 | BNB | Buy | 606.312→607.678 | +0.68 | timeout |
| 06-13 11:09 | ARB | Buy | 0.0845111→0.0858085 | +7.29 | timeout |
| 06-13 03:03 | AVAX | Buy | 6.59495→6.60145 | +0.06 | timeout |
| 06-12 19:00 | AVAX | Buy | 6.63236→6.57985 | -4.37 | timeout |
| 06-12 09:33 | SOL | Buy | 66.522→67.4029 | +6.17 | timeout |
| 06-12 01:02 | AVAX | Buy | 6.51663→6.61645 | +7.22 | timeout |
| 06-11 12:22 | APT | Buy | 0.636659→0.624232 | -10.19 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 04:49 | OP | Buy | 0.0909727→0.0939565 | +15.96 | take_profit |
| 06-10 20:50 | ATOM | Buy | 1.79295→1.75868 | -10.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 09:20 | APT | Buy | 0.654464→0.641818 | -10.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 16:39 | SOL | Buy | 64.7617→63.5447 | -9.84 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 14:21 | OP | Buy | 0.0957039→0.0937696 | -10.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 00:35 | ADA | Buy | 0.170453→0.167085 | -10.32 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 18:46 | INJ | Buy | 5.67102→5.85254 | +15.53 | take_profit |
| 06-08 12:42 | OP | Buy | 0.0964541→0.0995151 | +15.38 | take_profit |
| 06-08 07:14 | SOL | Buy | 66.0189→65.6252 | -3.33 | timeout |
| 06-07 22:14 | SOL | Buy | 64.4197→66.462 | +15.59 | take_profit |
| 06-07 12:13 | AVAX | Buy | 6.73518→6.60574 | -10.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 04:57 | ATOM | Buy | 1.62161→1.67678 | +16.60 | take_profit |
| 06-06 15:19 | SOL | Buy | 62.4044→61.2282 | -9.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-06 13:58 | ATOM | Buy | 1.6059→1.63959 | +10.05 | timeout |
| 06-05 22:05 | OP | Buy | 0.0993748→0.0974669 | -10.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 15:15 | ADA | Buy | 0.16084→0.157682 | -10.26 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 06:23 | ADA | Buy | 0.163791→0.16047 | -10.59 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 00:48 | INJ | Buy | 5.34504→5.51492 | +15.43 | take_profit |
| 06-04 21:52 | ATOM | Buy | 1.80405→1.78245 | -6.48 | timeout |
| 06-04 08:11 | APT | Buy | 0.774894→0.76013 | -9.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 00:25 | ADA | Buy | 0.203401→0.19949 | -10.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 00:24 | SOL | Buy | 72.1578→71.6882 | -3.60 | timeout |
| 06-03 06:34 | APT | Buy | 0.820805→0.846788 | +15.39 | take_profit |
| 06-02 19:33 | ATOM | Buy | 1.83376→1.79875 | -9.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 14:23 | XRP | Buy | 1.26462→1.24057 | -9.90 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 10:31 | ATOM | Buy | 1.88057→1.87283 | -2.51 | timeout |
| 06-02 00:51 | XRP | Buy | 1.29012→1.28968 | -0.60 | timeout |
| 06-01 13:55 | OP | Buy | 0.116919→0.114504 | -10.83 | stop_loss |
| 05-31 23:09 | OP | Buy | 0.115759→0.11949 | +15.65 | take_profit |
| 05-31 14:18 | APT | Buy | 0.940135→0.921608 | -10.22 | stop_loss |
| 05-31 07:44 | APT | Buy | 0.934834→0.935166 | -0.30 | timeout |
| 05-30 17:40 | OP | Buy | 0.12107→0.12066 | -2.10 | timeout |
| 05-30 14:52 | ADA | Buy | 0.235439→0.235591 | -0.10 | timeout |
| 05-29 18:00 | INJ | Buy | 6.53983→6.41519 | -9.95 | stop_loss |
| 05-29 07:20 | INJ | Buy | 6.07162→6.26783 | +15.71 | take_profit |
| 05-28 23:21 | INJ | Buy | 5.53008→5.42093 | -10.29 | stop_loss |
| 05-28 21:11 | ADA | Buy | 0.231498→0.235451 | +8.04 | timeout |
| 05-28 05:19 | INJ | Buy | 5.39895→5.29483 | -10.09 | stop_loss |
| 05-27 21:40 | INJ | Buy | 5.56439→5.4575 | -10.06 | stop_loss |
| 05-27 13:38 | INJ | Buy | 5.70783→5.5981 | -10.05 | stop_loss |
| 05-27 06:41 | INJ | Buy | 5.63851→5.82024 | +15.69 | take_profit |
| 05-27 05:00 | ADA | Buy | 0.24033→0.23949 | -2.14 | timeout |
| 05-26 14:22 | ATOM | Buy | 2.21605→2.28743 | +15.65 | take_profit |
| 05-26 10:19 | OP | Buy | 0.127862→0.131927 | +15.43 | take_profit |
| 05-26 00:43 | ADA | Buy | 0.246462→0.241839 | -9.87 | stop_loss |
| 05-25 18:48 | OP | Buy | 0.128932→0.131407 | +9.20 | timeout |
| 05-25 10:47 | OP | Buy | 0.125181→0.128898 | +14.34 | timeout |
| 05-24 21:34 | OP | Buy | 0.126412→0.123977 | -10.06 | stop_loss |
| 05-24 14:13 | OP | Buy | 0.127932→0.125496 | -9.92 | stop_loss |
| 05-24 10:47 | OP | Buy | 0.128942→0.127848 | -4.38 | timeout |
| 05-24 02:47 | OP | Buy | 0.130423→0.128878 | -6.41 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
123
closed
41%
win rate
-110.97
total pnl ($)
-18.4 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA | 28 | 36% | -50.5 | -70.28 |
| OP | 21 | 38% | -4.5 | -4.21 |
| ATOM | 13 | 46% | +9.0 | +6.14 |
| APT | 10 | 30% | -60.6 | -30.25 |
| INJ | 10 | 50% | +54.5 | +27.25 |
| AVAX | 9 | 33% | -52.6 | -23.47 |
| SOL | 8 | 50% | +10.0 | +4.60 |
| XRP | 7 | 14% | -59.2 | -20.53 |
| SUI | 4 | 75% | +83.7 | +16.62 |
| ARB | 4 | 25% | -114.8 | -22.88 |
| BTC | 3 | 67% | +13.9 | +2.09 |
| BNB | 3 | 100% | +64.6 | +9.68 |
| DOGE | 2 | 50% | +46.2 | +4.63 |
| LINK | 1 | 0% | -206.8 | -10.34 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 1)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 01:15 | ADA | Buy | circuit_breaker |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-10 00:06 | BTC | Buy | +0.30 | The market was in a low-funding, sideways regime with stable open interest, offering no clear directional catalyst. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout, indicating the expected move did not materialize within the holding period. |
| 04-30 08:20 | BTC | Buy | +1.98 | At close, Bitcoin had stabilized near $76,048 with mild 1-hour gains (+0.33%) despite a 24-hour decline of -1.30%, while funding rates had normalized sharply upward to -0.005438% from the -0.0137% that triggered the entry. The trade's thesis worked marginal… |
| 04-27 16:15 | ADA | Buy | -5.09 | ADA declined 2.91% over 24 hours and 0.90% over 7 days while BTC and ETH showed modest weakness, creating a mild downtrend environment that persisted through the 8-hour hold period. The carry-receive thesis failed because ADA's negative funding rate of -0.0… |