475
closed trades
47%
win rate
-98.73
total pnl ($)
0.717
weight
7d window — n=114 wr=48% pnl=-36.48
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-20 00:49:03 (32.9d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
amw
n: 115
· wr: 31.3%
· total_bps: -1188.5
· mean_bps: -10.33
· sharpe: -0.26
· max_dd_bps: -1397.9
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 23:09 | ADA | Buy | 0.15898→0.15845 | -2.11 | timeout |
| 06-21 22:14 | ETH | Buy | 1708.97→1715.13 | +1.35 | timeout |
| 06-21 22:14 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0825766→0.0827683 | +0.71 | timeout |
| 06-21 22:14 | SOL | Buy | 72.6579→72.9611 | +1.63 | timeout |
| 06-21 21:54 | BTC | Buy | 63765.2→63812.8 | -0.08 | timeout |
| 06-21 19:20 | ARB | Buy | 0.0834008→0.0836991 | +1.33 | timeout |
| 06-21 18:46 | SUI | Buy | 0.709457→0.708703 | -0.99 | timeout |
| 06-21 18:46 | LINK | Buy | 7.95299→7.94301 | -1.08 | timeout |
| 06-21 18:45 | XRP | Buy | 1.14289→1.14401 | +0.04 | timeout |
| 06-21 16:30 | LTC | Buy | 45.7744→45.4726 | -3.75 | timeout |
| 06-21 14:50 | APT | Buy | 0.656464→0.654636 | -1.84 | timeout |
| 06-21 14:06 | NEAR | Buy | 2.18165→2.18865 | +1.16 | timeout |
| 06-21 13:16 | ETH | Buy | 1717.87→1725.73 | +1.84 | timeout |
| 06-21 13:16 | BTC | Buy | 64040.2→64106.8 | +0.07 | timeout |
| 06-21 10:27 | SOL | Buy | 73.601→74.2069 | +3.66 | timeout |
| 06-21 09:43 | ATOM | Buy | 1.77644→1.78175 | +1.05 | timeout |
| 06-21 07:33 | LTC | Buy | 44.6212→44.8858 | +2.52 | timeout |
| 06-21 04:18 | NEAR | Buy | 2.18645→2.20845 | +4.58 | timeout |
| 06-21 04:18 | ADA | Buy | 0.162381→0.16169 | -2.58 | timeout |
| 06-21 04:17 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0835519→0.0835461 | -0.48 | timeout |
| 06-21 04:17 | ETH | Buy | 1735.37→1736.03 | -0.26 | timeout |
| 06-20 22:13 | LTC | Buy | 44.3551→44.4789 | +0.94 | timeout |
| 06-20 22:13 | ATOM | Buy | 1.80355→1.80225 | -0.82 | timeout |
| 06-20 18:01 | BTC | Buy | 63950.2→63836.8 | -1.34 | timeout |
| 06-20 15:48 | SOL | Buy | 71.9508→71.9912 | -0.18 | timeout |
| 06-20 15:48 | DOGE | Buy | 0.083871→0.0837041 | -1.45 | timeout |
| 06-20 15:48 | XRP | Buy | 1.14919→1.14981 | -0.18 | timeout |
| 06-20 15:20 | ETH | Buy | 1715.57→1749.83 | +9.53 | take_profit |
| 06-20 14:46 | NEAR | Buy | 2.10773→2.14896 | +9.34 | take_profit |
| 06-20 13:24 | ATOM | Buy | 1.78675→1.76498 | -6.53 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 10:02 | LTC | Buy | 44.136→44.2519 | +0.86 | timeout |
| 06-20 08:48 | BTC | Buy | 63682.2→63401.8 | -2.66 | timeout |
| 06-20 06:48 | SOL | Buy | 71.6577→72.2092 | +3.39 | timeout |
| 06-20 05:42 | OP | Buy | 0.102916→0.103194 | +0.90 | timeout |
| 06-20 05:31 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0833408→0.0836631 | +1.48 | timeout |
| 06-19 22:57 | LTC | Buy | 43.83→43.827 | -0.49 | timeout |
| 06-19 21:06 | INJ | Buy | 5.09557→5.08043 | -1.93 | timeout |
| 06-19 18:02 | SUI | Buy | 0.709767→0.712642 | +1.58 | timeout |
| 06-19 15:02 | SOL | Buy | 69.3214→69.0766 | -2.21 | timeout |
| 06-19 15:02 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0832698→0.0830872 | -1.55 | timeout |
| 06-19 13:52 | AVAX | Buy | 6.08942→6.16926 | +6.11 | timeout |
| 06-19 13:51 | BNB | Buy | 574.824→576.776 | +1.25 | timeout |
| 06-19 13:51 | ETH | Buy | 1685.67→1702.93 | +4.67 | timeout |
| 06-19 13:22 | OP | Buy | 0.101495→0.103554 | +9.69 | take_profit |
| 06-19 11:58 | ATOM | Buy | 1.80095→1.80715 | +1.27 | timeout |
| 06-19 08:51 | BTC | Buy | 62621.1→62625.9 | -0.41 | timeout |
| 06-19 08:41 | LTC | Buy | 43.3418→43.4511 | +0.81 | timeout |
| 06-19 08:40 | XRP | Buy | 1.12248→1.12802 | +2.02 | timeout |
| 06-19 06:09 | SOL | Buy | 68.6723→68.6777 | -0.42 | timeout |
| 06-19 06:08 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0826196→0.0825704 | -0.75 | timeout |
| 06-19 06:08 | LINK | Buy | 7.86197→7.89872 | +1.89 | timeout |
| 06-19 06:08 | SUI | Buy | 0.713458→0.714701 | +0.42 | timeout |
| 06-19 03:18 | AVAX | Buy | 6.17684→6.10872 | -5.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 03:15 | NEAR | Buy | 2.13573→2.11032 | -6.40 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 02:53 | ETH | Buy | 1711.87→1705.83 | -2.22 | timeout |
| 06-18 20:42 | ATOM | Buy | 1.78465→1.80065 | +4.04 | timeout |
| 06-18 17:20 | INJ | Buy | 5.11988→5.10362 | -2.03 | timeout |
| 06-18 16:40 | BNB | Buy | 575.624→575.256 | -0.77 | timeout |
| 06-18 16:40 | ADA | Buy | 0.16108→0.16064 | -1.81 | timeout |
| 06-18 16:40 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0821895→0.0823534 | +0.54 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:51 | SUI | Buy | 0.723041→0.715073 | -5.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:16 | XRP | Buy | 1.16049→1.15541 | -2.64 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:16 | ETH | Buy | 1734.67→1732.13 | -1.18 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:16 | SOL | Buy | 71.0397→70.5244 | -4.07 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:16 | BTC | Buy | 63833.2→63505.8 | -3.01 | timeout |
| 06-18 12:28 | LTC | Buy | 44.129→44.105 | -0.73 | timeout |
| 06-18 10:05 | ATOM | Buy | 1.85936→1.83892 | -5.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 08:01 | OP | Buy | 0.104716→0.106323 | +7.25 | timeout |
| 06-18 07:50 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0845851→0.0850247 | +2.15 | timeout |
| 06-18 07:50 | BNB | Buy | 589.157→589.563 | -0.10 | timeout |
| 06-18 07:02 | XRP | Buy | 1.16609→1.16911 | +0.85 | timeout |
| 06-18 06:07 | ETH | Buy | 1722.97→1729.23 | +1.37 | timeout |
| 06-18 05:06 | BTC | Buy | 64208.2→63737.8 | -4.11 | timeout |
| 06-18 05:03 | ADA | Buy | 0.166362→0.164447 | -6.20 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 05:03 | LINK | Buy | 8.0069→7.91766 | -6.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 04:50 | AVAX | Buy | 6.68977→6.61494 | -6.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 23:15 | LTC | Buy | 44.7132→44.9048 | +1.69 | timeout |
| 06-17 21:17 | ATOM | Buy | 1.93198→1.92312 | -2.73 | timeout |
| 06-17 20:35 | LINK | Buy | 8.07562→8.07268 | -0.64 | timeout |
| 06-17 20:34 | ETH | Buy | 1741.17→1741.53 | -0.35 | timeout |
| 06-17 19:44 | AVAX | Buy | 6.77109→6.69498 | -6.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 19:19 | ARB | Buy | 0.0872218→0.0862453 | -6.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 17:54 | BTC | Buy | 65849.3→66042.7 | +1.01 | timeout |
| 06-17 15:22 | OP | Buy | 0.106047→0.108163 | +9.53 | take_profit |
| 06-17 13:22 | SOL | Buy | 71.9718→72.2502 | +1.49 | timeout |
| 06-17 12:06 | LTC | Buy | 45.0363→45.1577 | +0.89 | timeout |
| 06-17 12:06 | XRP | Buy | 1.1918→1.1938 | +0.40 | timeout |
| 06-17 12:06 | BNB | Buy | 601.85→605.319 | +2.43 | timeout |
| 06-17 12:06 | ADA | Buy | 0.168402→0.168838 | +0.85 | timeout |
| 06-17 09:50 | AVAX | Buy | 6.815→6.83949 | +1.35 | timeout |
| 06-17 09:50 | LINK | Buy | 8.17004→8.20295 | +1.56 | timeout |
| 06-17 09:50 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0859445→0.0861045 | +0.48 | timeout |
| 06-17 09:49 | BTC | Buy | 64887.2→64949.8 | +0.03 | timeout |
| 06-17 08:31 | ETH | Buy | 1785.78→1766.64 | -5.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 04:48 | SOL | Buy | 73.584→73.9189 | +1.83 | timeout |
| 06-17 02:22 | ADA | Buy | 0.170973→0.173677 | +7.45 | timeout |
| 06-17 01:32 | BTC | Buy | 65736.3→65553.7 | -1.84 | timeout |
| 06-16 14:09 | DOGE | Buy | 0.08784→0.0874611 | -2.61 | timeout |
| 06-16 13:11 | SUI | Buy | 0.797359→0.788558 | -5.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 13:10 | ADA | Buy | 0.180075→0.177936 | -6.39 | stop_loss |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
475
closed
47%
win rate
-98.73
total pnl ($)
-4.2 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
18
closed
39%
win rate
-10.12
total pnl ($)
-8.5 bps
avg bps net
Live WR is 82% of paper WR (39% vs 47%)
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 45 | 42% | +2.4 | +5.42 |
| BTC | 45 | 44% | -5.3 | -11.86 |
| SOL | 42 | 52% | +7.0 | +14.90 |
| DOGE | 36 | 47% | -16.9 | -30.50 |
| XRP | 31 | 48% | +0.1 | +0.23 |
| ATOM | 29 | 41% | -30.0 | -43.43 |
| LTC | 28 | 61% | +15.4 | +21.52 |
| LINK | 26 | 35% | -22.7 | -29.56 |
| ADA | 26 | 38% | -16.5 | -21.32 |
| AVAX | 24 | 54% | +2.0 | +2.45 |
| INJ | 23 | 43% | +21.8 | +25.18 |
| NEAR | 23 | 35% | -32.1 | -36.94 |
| OP | 23 | 61% | +11.6 | +13.44 |
| BNB | 22 | 64% | +16.5 | +18.19 |
| SUI | 19 | 47% | -9.2 | -8.78 |
| APT | 19 | 47% | -16.2 | -15.35 |
| ARB | 14 | 50% | -3.3 | -2.31 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 4)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 22:36 | ADA | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-21 21:38 | DOGE | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-21 21:38 | SOL | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-21 21:38 | ETH | Buy | stale_intent |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||