etf_spot_bitcoin_flow_following

not live
12
closed trades
8%
win rate
-11.53
total pnl ($)
1.129
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-18 21:31:19 (42.4d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT  ·  strict: STRICT-FAIL  ·  batch: afe__restored_460dfba0
n: 18  ·  wr: 38.9%  ·  total_bps: +16.3  ·  mean_bps: +0.90  ·  sharpe: +0.01  ·  max_dd_bps: -253.6
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 12 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-16 02:00BTCSell66172.7→66315.3-0.66timeout
06-15 02:00BTCSell65392.7→65476.3-0.47timeout
06-14 02:03BTCSell64428.8→64565.2-0.65timeout
06-13 02:00BTCSell63484.8→63797.2-1.25timeout
06-12 02:04BTCSell63391.8→63449.2-0.38timeout
06-11 01:16BTCSell61307.9→62143.2-3.12stop_loss
05-25 01:59BTCSell76750.2→76876.8-0.55timeout
05-24 02:00BTCSell76529.2→76864.8-1.13timeout
05-23 01:59BTCSell75709.2→75445.8+0.56timeout
05-12 02:43BTCBuy81724.1→81715.9-0.23timeout
05-11 02:32BTCBuy82160.1→81047.4-3.40stop_loss
05-10 03:01BTCBuy80737→80725-0.25timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
12
closed
8%
win rate
-11.53
total pnl ($)
-43.5 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC128%-43.5-11.53

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
05-10 03:01BTCBuy-0.25The market was in a mild uptrend with BTC up 0.54% on the hour and 2.93% over 24 hours, while negative funding suggested cautious positioning. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout, indicating the expected move did not materialize within…