etf_exodus_capitulation_long

not live
28
closed trades
36%
win rate
-51.99
total pnl ($)
1.193
weight
7d window — n=2 wr=50% pnl=-5.20  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-06-03 16:17:47 (23.8d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT  ·  strict: STRICT-FAIL  ·  batch: strategies_batch_acy
n: 17  ·  wr: 35.3%  ·  total_bps: -563.4  ·  mean_bps: -33.14  ·  sharpe: -0.26  ·  max_dd_bps: -992.5
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 28 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-27 03:49BTCBuy59381→60322+7.48timeout
06-25 13:48BTCBuy60832→59336.3-12.68stop_loss
06-18 12:22BTCBuy64333.2→64091.8-2.37timeout
06-17 00:12BTCBuy66422.3→65737.7-5.64timeout
06-15 11:58BTCBuy63775.2→66187.7+18.47timeout
06-13 23:56BTCBuy63798.2→64407.8+4.23timeout
06-12 11:54BTCBuy63665.2→63800.8+0.57timeout
06-10 23:50BTCBuy61680.1→61451.9-2.29timeout
06-09 03:21BTCBuy63590.2→62840.9-6.33timeout
06-07 15:18BTCBuy60655→61748.9+8.56timeout
06-05 13:56BTCBuy62457.1→60920.5-12.75stop_loss
06-04 01:22BTCBuy64277.2→62696.5-12.75stop_loss
06-02 15:30BTCBuy68938.4→67241-12.76stop_loss
06-01 15:24BTCBuy73441.7→71163.8-16.02stop_loss
05-31 04:21BTCBuy73643.7→74168.3+3.07timeout
05-28 02:35BTCBuy75930.8→74063.2-12.75stop_loss
05-26 15:02BTCBuy77121.9→76858.2-2.17timeout
05-25 03:02BTCBuy77224.9→77071.1-1.48timeout
05-23 15:02BTCBuy75762.8→75463.2-2.43timeout
05-22 03:02BTCBuy77185.9→77650.1+2.53timeout
05-20 15:01BTCBuy76668.8→77446.1+4.54timeout
05-19 03:01BTCBuy76690.8→76569.2-1.31timeout
05-17 15:00BTCBuy78154.9→78007.1-1.40timeout
05-15 13:51BTCBuy80725→78743.7-12.72stop_loss
05-12 14:43BTCBuy81724.1→81715.9-0.56timeout
05-04 15:11BTCBuy79076→79917+4.90timeout
05-03 03:10BTCBuy78156.9→78117.1-0.68timeout
05-01 15:10BTCBuy76256.8→78271.1+12.78timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
28
closed
36%
win rate
-51.99
total pnl ($)
-36.8 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC2836%-36.8-51.99

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
05-04 15:11BTCBuy+4.90The market exhibited a neutral regime with Bitcoin trading flat on the hour and stable funding rates amidst high open interest. The trade failed because the thesis could not be validated within the allotted time, resulting in an automatic exit due to timeout.
05-03 03:10BTCBuy-0.68# Trade Analysis: etf-capitulation-1777720226 Bitcoin was consolidating near $78.6K with minimal intraday momentum (−0.17% 1h) and modest positive weekly drift (+0.66% 7d), while funding rates remained benign at 0.53% bps, showing no imminent liquidation c…
05-01 15:10BTCBuy+12.78BTC was consolidating near session highs with modest positive momentum (2.73% over 24h, 0.49% over 7d) and neutral funding rates (-0.002157%) suggesting balanced leverage positioning at close. The trade's thesis failed to materialize fully despite the 5-day…