9
closed trades
33%
win rate
-13.44
total pnl ($)
1.212
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-19 06:49:45 (34.8d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
dc
n: 8
· wr: 50.0%
· total_bps: -236.8
· mean_bps: -29.60
· sharpe: -0.39
· max_dd_bps: -357.9
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 9 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 00:10 | BTC | Sell | 63541.8→63577.2 | -0.71 | timeout |
| 06-12 12:09 | BTC | Sell | 63250.8→63648.2 | -3.58 | timeout |
| 05-15 17:14 | BTC | Sell | 80056→79224 | +4.75 | timeout |
| 05-09 04:00 | BTC | Sell | 80149→80374 | -1.86 | timeout |
| 05-08 15:59 | BTC | Sell | 80188→80086 | +0.19 | timeout |
| 05-02 01:05 | BTC | Sell | 77881.1→78264.9 | -2.94 | timeout |
| 05-01 13:05 | BTC | Sell | 77244.1→78166.9 | -6.42 | timeout |
| 04-25 01:00 | BTC | Sell | 77674→77421 | +1.18 | timeout |
| 04-24 13:00 | BTC | Sell | 77759→78319 | -4.05 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
9
closed
33%
win rate
-13.44
total pnl ($)
-29.9 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 9 | 33% | -29.9 | -13.44 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-09 04:00 | BTC | Sell | -1.86 | The market was in a mild downtrend with BTC declining 1.47% over 24 hours and negative short-term momentum. The thesis failed because the trade was closed due to timeout, indicating the expected move did not materialize within the allotted time frame. |
| 05-08 15:59 | BTC | Sell | +0.19 | The market was in a mild downtrend with BTC declining 2.28% over 24 hours, but the short thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the move materialized. |
| 05-02 01:05 | BTC | Sell | -2.94 | Bitcoin was trading flat to slightly positive near $78,300 with modest 24-hour gains of 2.34% and declining funding rates at -0.011354%, indicating reduced leverage appetite across the market. The short thesis failed because the 25.3% OI contraction signal … |
| 05-01 13:05 | BTC | Sell | -6.42 | # Trade Analysis Bitcoin was consolidating within a modest 1-hour uptrend (+0.93%) with stable funding rates at 0%, lacking the directional conviction that would typically validate a short thesis. The 41.8% Deribit OI contraction signal failed to produce t… |
| 04-25 01:00 | BTC | Sell | +1.18 | BTC was trading sideways at $77,493 with minimal momentum, down 1.05% over 24 hours while funding rates remained modest at 0.0046%. The trade's short thesis failed to materialize as the 82.8% OI contraction signal didn't generate sufficient downward pressur… |
| 04-24 13:00 | BTC | Sell | -4.05 | Bitcoin was trading sideways near $78,300 with minimal volatility (0.01% 1h change) and elevated open interest of $4.05B despite the initial signal of waning interest. The short thesis failed because the 83% OI contraction signal that triggered the trade wa… |