14
closed trades
50%
win rate
-12.69
total pnl ($)
1.250
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-20 01:11:31 (39.0d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
xe
n: 16
· wr: 43.8%
· total_bps: +463.6
· mean_bps: +28.98
· sharpe: +0.29
· max_dd_bps: -271.0
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 14 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-13 22:43 | BTC | Sell | 81715.9→81724.1 | -0.33 | timeout |
| 05-13 15:01 | BTC | Sell | 80793→81724.1 | -6.24 | timeout |
| 05-13 09:02 | BTC | Sell | 80740→81724.1 | -6.42 | timeout |
| 05-12 10:01 | BTC | Sell | 80790→81724.1 | -6.06 | timeout |
| 05-09 14:02 | BTC | Sell | 80463→80351 | +0.30 | timeout |
| 05-09 07:21 | BTC | Sell | 81571.9→80207 | +7.86 | timeout |
| 05-09 01:20 | BTC | Sell | 81015.9→80276 | +3.93 | timeout |
| 05-08 19:19 | BTC | Sell | 81247.9→80041 | +7.11 | timeout |
| 05-08 13:20 | BTC | Sell | 81999.9→79760 | +13.25 | timeout |
| 05-04 04:19 | BTC | Sell | 78694.1→80627.3 | -12.69 | stop_loss |
| 05-04 04:19 | BTC | Sell | 78655.1→80587.3 | -12.66 | stop_loss |
| 05-04 02:55 | BTC | Sell | 78437.1→80364.2 | -12.72 | stop_loss |
| 04-29 15:15 | BTC | Sell | 77397→76194 | +7.32 | timeout |
| 04-29 09:14 | BTC | Sell | 77795→76999 | +4.67 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
14
closed
50%
win rate
-12.69
total pnl ($)
-18.9 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 14 | 50% | -18.9 | -12.69 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-09 14:02 | BTC | Sell | +0.30 | The market was in a mild downtrend with BTC down 1.62% over 24 hours and negative funding, indicating bearish sentiment. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected move materialized, as the market remained range-bound with… |
| 05-09 07:21 | BTC | Sell | +7.86 | The market was in a mild downtrend with BTC down over 1% in 24 hours and 2% over the week, showing persistent bearish pressure. The short thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected move materialized, as the price remained rang… |
| 05-09 01:20 | BTC | Sell | +3.93 | BTC was in a mild intraday uptick but remained in a broader weekly downtrend with low funding. The short thesis failed to capture further downside as the market stabilized within the timeout period, preventing the expected move from materializing. |
| 05-08 19:19 | BTC | Sell | +7.11 | The market was in a short-term uptrend with BTC gaining 0.54% in the hour, but still down over the past 24 hours and week. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected move materialized, likely due to insufficient volatility… |
| 05-08 13:20 | BTC | Sell | +13.25 | BTC was in a mild intraday uptick but remained in a broader downtrend over 24h and 7d. The short thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected move lower materialized. |
| 04-29 15:15 | BTC | Sell | +7.32 | At close, Bitcoin had stabilized after a 3.51% weekly decline, trading sideways with minimal intraday momentum (-0.43% on the hour) while funding rates turned slightly negative, suggesting cooling leverage demand. The trade's thesis failed to fully material… |
| 04-29 09:14 | BTC | Sell | +4.67 | Bitcoin consolidated sideways around $77k, gaining +0.32% over 24h and +0.01% in the final hour as funding rates turned slightly negative, suggesting mild deleveraging pressure in perpetual futures. The basis expansion fade thesis failed because the trade's… |