7
closed trades
57%
win rate
+14.45
total pnl ($)
1.220
weight
7d window — n=7 wr=57% pnl=+14.45
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-03 15:50:00 (26.7d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
gq
n: 293
· wr: 39.2%
· total_bps: -4706.4
· mean_bps: -16.06
· sharpe: -0.17
· max_dd_bps: -6739.6
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 7 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 04:22 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0733297→0.072209 | +7.18 | timeout |
| 06-29 04:50 | ADA | Buy | 0.143276→0.143864 | +1.61 | timeout |
| 06-28 19:47 | ADA | Buy | 0.144366→0.142343 | -7.46 | stop_loss |
| 06-28 04:23 | SOL | Sell | 70.6014→70.7736 | -1.69 | timeout |
| 06-28 04:02 | ADA | Buy | 0.145246→0.145344 | -0.10 | timeout |
| 06-27 22:22 | ADA | Sell | 0.146333→0.144336 | +6.31 | timeout |
| 06-27 20:12 | XRP | Sell | 1.07513→1.05556 | +8.61 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
7
closed
57%
win rate
+14.45
total pnl ($)
+41.7 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
15
closed
33%
win rate
+20.38
total pnl ($)
+60.8 bps
avg bps net
Live WR is 58% of paper WR (33% vs 57%)
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA | 4 | 50% | +2.0 | +0.36 |
| XRP | 1 | 100% | +173.0 | +8.61 |
| SOL | 1 | 0% | -33.4 | -1.69 |
| DOGE | 1 | 100% | +143.8 | +7.18 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-10 04:08 | ADA | Sell | -0.25 | The market was in a low-volatility, sideways grind with elevated funding, suggesting a crowded short bias. The thesis failed because the timeout closed the trade before a directional move materialized, capturing only minor funding decay against a stagnant p… |
| 05-09 12:01 | ADA | Sell | +1.77 | The market was in a broad downtrend across crypto, with ADA falling 4.71% in 24 hours alongside BTC and ETH. The thesis failed because the short was not entered before the timeout, so the potential profit from the declining price was never captured. |
| 05-09 01:35 | ADA | Sell | -7.46 | ADA was in a broad downtrend with negative 24h and 7d performance, and the short thesis failed because the stop_loss was triggered by a temporary intraday bounce against the prevailing bearish momentum. |
| 05-08 04:09 | ADA | Sell | +0.92 | ADA was in a mild intraday uptick (+0.42% 1h) but remained weak on the 24h and 7d timeframes, with BTC and ETH also showing negative weekly trends. The short thesis failed because the timeout closed the trade before the broader bearish momentum could materi… |
| 05-07 02:53 | ADA | Sell | +2.46 | ADA was in a mild intraday uptick but remained weak over the past week, with negative 24h and 7d performance. The short thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the broader bearish trend could materialize, missing the opportunity for pro… |
| 05-06 22:52 | ADA | Sell | +0.02 | The market was in a low-volatility, sideways grind with elevated funding, suggesting a crowded short bias. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before a directional move materialized, as the persistent funding did not trigger a squeeze … |
| 05-06 20:30 | ETH | Sell | +0.04 | The market was in a mild intraday uptick within a broader weekly downtrend, with ETH showing a slight 1-hour gain but still negative over 24 hours and 7 days. The thesis failed because the trade expired via timeout, likely due to insufficient short-term mom… |
| 05-06 17:39 | ADA | Sell | -0.25 | ADA was declining over multiple timeframes with negative BTC and ETH correlation, indicating broad bearish pressure. The short thesis failed because the trade expired via timeout before the expected move materialized, resulting in a small loss from funding … |
| 05-06 07:11 | BTC | Buy | +10.46 | BTC was in a mild downtrend across all timeframes with negative funding, indicating bearish sentiment. The thesis worked because the take-profit was triggered as a short-term bounce occurred within the broader decline. |
| 05-04 17:53 | BTC | Sell | -7.24 | The market was in a short-term pullback within a broader weekly uptrend, with Bitcoin trading near $81,263 and funding rates remaining neutral. The thesis failed because the anticipated continuation of the weekly rally did not materialize, triggering the st… |