31
closed trades
61%
win rate
+12.08
total pnl ($)
1.212
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-18 23:42:39 (39.0d ago) · src: canon
verdict: INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
adk
n: 0
· wr: 0.0%
· total_bps: +0.0
· mean_bps: +0.00
· sharpe: +0.00
· max_dd_bps: +0.0
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 31 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-06 04:02 | BTC | Sell | 80884→81531.1 | -4.47 | timeout |
| 05-05 05:06 | ADA | Buy | 0.250553→0.251977 | +2.39 | timeout |
| 05-05 00:01 | BTC | Buy | 79950→79750 | -1.67 | timeout |
| 05-04 20:05 | ADA | Sell | 0.250547→0.250433 | -0.20 | timeout |
| 05-04 17:53 | BTC | Sell | 79734→80815.4 | -7.24 | stop_loss |
| 05-03 12:01 | ADA | Sell | 0.248528→0.249822 | -3.03 | timeout |
| 05-01 03:02 | BTC | Buy | 76214.8→76522.2 | +1.60 | timeout |
| 04-29 21:47 | ADA | Sell | 0.2415→0.24466 | -6.99 | stop_loss |
| 04-29 18:12 | ADA | Sell | 0.24413→0.23874 | +10.59 | take_profit |
| 04-29 12:02 | BTC | Buy | 77036→77510 | +2.63 | timeout |
| 04-28 16:01 | ADA | Buy | 0.24522→0.24623 | +1.61 | timeout |
| 04-28 12:07 | BTC | Sell | 76750→76160 | +3.39 | timeout |
| 04-28 12:03 | ETH | Buy | 2284.6→2274.1 | -2.75 | timeout |
| 04-28 02:04 | ADA | Buy | 0.24503→0.24811 | +5.83 | timeout |
| 04-27 23:04 | ADA | Buy | 0.24545→0.24696 | +2.63 | timeout |
| 04-27 20:04 | ADA | Buy | 0.24426→0.24542 | +1.92 | timeout |
| 04-27 16:02 | ADA | Sell | 0.24736→0.244 | +6.34 | timeout |
| 04-27 12:42 | ETH | Sell | 2311.3→2312.2 | -0.64 | timeout |
| 04-27 11:09 | ADA | Buy | 0.24749→0.24711 | -1.22 | timeout |
| 04-25 23:05 | ADA | Buy | 0.24875→0.24977 | +1.60 | timeout |
| 04-25 20:04 | ADA | Sell | 0.25003→0.24895 | +1.71 | timeout |
| 04-25 10:03 | BTC | Buy | 77475→77710 | +1.07 | timeout |
| 04-24 18:01 | ETH | Buy | 2311.7→2317.6 | +0.83 | timeout |
| 04-24 07:00 | ETH | Buy | 2318.4→2307.9 | -2.71 | timeout |
| 04-23 17:39 | BTC | Buy | 78056→77275 | -5.35 | stop_loss |
| 04-23 08:01 | ADA | Buy | 0.24592→0.24673 | +1.30 | timeout |
| 04-22 23:00 | ETH | Buy | 2395.3→2397 | +0.00 | timeout |
| 04-22 01:03 | ADA | Buy | 0.24735→0.24984 | +4.68 | timeout |
| 04-21 22:01 | ADA | Buy | 0.24623→0.24741 | +2.05 | timeout |
| 04-21 20:07 | ETH | Sell | 2308→2299.3 | +1.53 | timeout |
| 04-21 19:42 | BTC | Buy | 75719→74961 | -5.36 | stop_loss |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
31
closed
61%
win rate
+12.08
total pnl ($)
+7.7 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
10
closed
30%
win rate
-3.72
total pnl ($)
-20.6 bps
avg bps net
Live WR is 49% of paper WR (30% vs 61%)
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA | 16 | 75% | +39.0 | +31.21 |
| BTC | 9 | 44% | -34.3 | -15.39 |
| ETH | 6 | 50% | -12.5 | -3.74 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-06 04:02 | BTC | Sell | -4.47 | The market was exhibiting low volatility with minimal funding rates and stable order book depth during the trade window. The thesis failed because the price did not move sufficiently to trigger a profit or loss target, resulting in a closure due to the time… |
| 05-05 05:06 | ADA | Buy | +2.39 | The market was in a low-volatility consolidation phase with minimal momentum across major assets. The trade failed because the position was forcibly closed due to a timeout, preventing any potential profit from being realized. |
| 05-05 00:01 | BTC | Buy | -1.67 | The market was in a neutral consolidation phase with low volatility and flat funding rates, offering no clear directional bias. The trade failed because the thesis lacked a defined exit strategy, resulting in a forced closure due to a timeout rather than a … |
| 05-04 17:53 | BTC | Sell | -7.24 | The market was in a short-term consolidation phase with neutral funding rates and stable open interest near the $81k level. The thesis failed because price action immediately reversed against the short position, triggering the stop loss before any significa… |
| 05-06 04:01 | BTC | Sell | -0.54 | The market was in a low-volatility consolidation phase with flat funding rates and stable order book depth. The trade failed because the price did not move in the anticipated direction within the allocated time window, triggering a horizon timeout exit. |
| 05-01 03:02 | BTC | Buy | +1.60 | BTC was consolidating near $76.5k with mild hourly weakness (-0.16%) but positive 24h momentum (+1.03%), while funding rates had compressed to -1.44% across venues, signaling reduced short positioning. The trade's thesis worked because the same-sign funding… |
| 05-01 03:01 | BTC | Buy | +0.18 | # Trade Analysis Bitcoin was consolidating near $76,500 with minimal intraday volatility (-0.16% in the past hour) despite a slight week-long decline (-2.44% over 7 days), while funding rates had turned negative at -0.0144%. The cross-venue funding fade st… |
| 04-29 21:47 | ADA | Sell | -6.99 | # Trade Analysis At close, ADA was consolidating within a narrow range (-1.25% 24h, -3.09% 7d) while funding rates had normalized to -0.011829%, indicating the funding spread anomaly that triggered the short had largely dissipated. The thesis failed becaus… |
| 04-29 21:48 | ADA | Sell | -0.24 | # Trade Analysis: ADA Cross-Venue Funding Fade ADA was consolidating in a mild downtrend (7d: -3.09%, 24h: -1.25%) with BTC and ETH both deeper in the red, showing risk-off sentiment persisted through the close. The trade's thesis failed because the negati… |
| 04-29 18:12 | ADA | Sell | +10.59 | ADA was declining across all timeframes (down 1.63% in the last hour, 2.52% over 24h) as broader crypto markets softened, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both in the red. The trade's thesis worked because the same-sign funding anomaly (both Bybit and HL showing n… |