cluster_top_trader_contrarian_18h · strategy

263

closed trades

41%

win rate

-192.88

total pnl ($)

1.065

weight

7d window — n=57 wr=42% pnl=-29.13 · venues=(unknown) · horizon=— · SL=— · TP=— · class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-06-03 17:18:28 (24.5d ago) · src: canon

verdict: REJECT · strict: STRICT-FAIL · batch: ahw

n: 265 · wr: 43.0% · total_bps: -3029.6 · mean_bps: -11.43 · sharpe: -0.04 · max_dd_bps: -6474.9

gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)

Last 100 trades

time	sym	side	entry→exit	pnl	close
06-27 22:02	SUI	Sell	0.709243→0.682511	+18.21	timeout
06-27 22:02	ONDO	Sell	0.32157→0.311518	+15.18	timeout
06-27 14:03	BLUR	Sell	0.0148053→0.0148147	-0.77	timeout
06-27 10:06	DOT	Buy	0.858054→0.844399	-8.41	timeout
06-27 10:06	LINK	Buy	7.36584→7.37156	+0.00	timeout
06-27 01:03	XLM	Buy	0.179595→0.175089	-13.00	stop_loss
06-26 21:07	AAVE	Buy	95.1888→92.8084	-12.95	stop_loss
06-26 13:57	HYPE	Sell	62.1515→63.7088	-12.98	stop_loss
06-26 12:43	BNB	Buy	568.112→553.764	-13.11	stop_loss
06-26 12:43	NEAR	Buy	1.82046→1.77367	-13.34	stop_loss
06-26 10:40	ATOM	Buy	1.63841→1.5967	-13.22	stop_loss
06-26 10:04	TRX	Buy	0.322761→0.32176	-2.00	timeout
06-26 09:52	SOL	Buy	70.5456→68.7923	-12.89	stop_loss
06-26 07:12	UNI	Sell	2.85769→2.9297	-13.05	stop_loss
06-26 03:01	HBAR	Buy	0.0731723→0.0712915	-13.30	stop_loss
06-26 02:13	INJ	Buy	4.31278→4.20444	-12.98	stop_loss
06-26 01:30	APT	Buy	0.596649→0.581364	-13.17	stop_loss
06-25 23:27	SOL	Sell	66.337→67.9842	-12.86	stop_loss
06-25 17:59	HYPE	Sell	61.6706→63.2144	-12.97	stop_loss
06-25 14:08	XMR	Sell	315.081→305.136	+15.33	timeout
06-25 13:59	KAS	Sell	0.0277851→0.0265566	+21.66	take_profit
06-25 13:51	ICP	Sell	2.22954→2.13203	+21.42	take_profit
06-25 10:47	HBAR	Buy	0.0754018→0.0734839	-13.17	stop_loss
06-25 05:24	BTC	Sell	60271→61762	-12.83	stop_loss
06-25 05:02	SOL	Sell	67.2009→68.8757	-12.95	stop_loss
06-25 04:57	ETH	Sell	1594.24→1633.78	-12.84	stop_loss
06-24 17:48	INJ	Sell	4.30872→4.12103	+21.32	take_profit
06-24 16:51	BLUR	Sell	0.0152992→0.0145826	+22.97	take_profit
06-24 16:51	BCH	Sell	193.792→185.286	+21.49	take_profit
06-24 16:48	OP	Sell	0.101984→0.0974844	+21.56	take_profit
06-24 13:43	AAVE	Buy	76.05→74.1154	-13.17	stop_loss
06-24 07:34	SAGA	Sell	0.0146263→0.0139535	+22.55	take_profit
06-24 06:07	ETH	Sell	1658.13→1671.97	-4.65	timeout
06-24 06:06	SOL	Sell	69.1596→69.7975	-5.26	timeout
06-24 02:05	DOGE	Sell	0.079785→0.0794188	+1.79	timeout
06-24 02:04	BTC	Sell	62800.9→62840.1	-0.73	timeout
06-23 22:02	BNB	Sell	591.212→576.964	+11.44	timeout
06-23 08:17	ETH	Sell	1723.53→1646.86	+21.72	take_profit
06-23 08:15	DOGE	Sell	0.0828943→0.0792628	+21.44	take_profit
06-23 06:20	BNB	Buy	594.859→579.845	-12.97	stop_loss
06-23 06:08	BTC	Buy	64685.2→63076.3	-12.91	stop_loss
06-23 00:51	XMR	Sell	319.39→327.435	-13.04	stop_loss
06-22 22:06	ADA	Buy	0.15829→0.15943	+3.37	timeout
06-22 22:06	LINK	Buy	7.87027→7.90052	+1.43	timeout
06-22 18:12	AAVE	Buy	74.3196→76.121	+11.67	timeout
06-22 14:06	FIL	Sell	0.8001→0.812663	-8.30	timeout
06-22 13:46	ARB	Buy	0.0830608→0.0867083	+21.58	take_profit
06-22 01:26	ETH	Sell	1709.43→1752.05	-12.91	stop_loss
06-22 00:37	APT	Sell	0.652437→0.669001	-13.07	stop_loss
06-22 00:37	AAVE	Sell	73.9605→75.8168	-13.00	stop_loss
06-21 21:09	XLM	Buy	0.216124→0.210682	-13.04	stop_loss
06-21 20:50	NEAR	Sell	2.23154→2.13403	+21.38	take_profit
06-21 18:07	HBAR	Sell	0.0804819→0.0795819	+5.14	timeout
06-21 14:08	INJ	Buy	4.99605→5.00695	+0.81	timeout
06-21 11:53	XLM	Buy	0.216344→0.210792	-13.28	stop_loss
06-21 10:09	BTC	Buy	63998.2→64200.8	+1.06	timeout
06-21 10:08	SOL	Buy	71.6958→73.9929	+15.46	timeout
06-20 22:05	XLM	Buy	0.212323→0.213677	+2.74	timeout
06-20 22:05	RENDER	Sell	1.74466→1.70933	+9.68	timeout
06-20 18:05	ETC	Sell	7.63359→7.48677	+9.17	timeout
06-20 14:06	SAGA	Sell	0.0132167→0.0132733	-2.59	timeout
06-20 14:05	HBAR	Sell	0.080146→0.0796669	+2.54	timeout
06-19 14:06	BNB	Sell	579.365→577.234	+1.37	timeout
06-19 13:45	OP	Buy	0.100855→0.105294	+21.55	take_profit
06-19 10:06	XRP	Sell	1.14361→1.12388	+8.17	timeout
06-19 10:06	BTC	Sell	62597.9→62381.1	+1.21	timeout
06-19 10:05	ETH	Sell	1687.23→1689.27	-1.02	timeout
06-19 10:05	SOL	Sell	68.6777→68.3312	+2.01	timeout
06-18 20:01	ARB	Sell	0.0820395→0.084103	-13.02	stop_loss
06-18 15:53	LINK	Buy	7.9998→7.79825	-12.98	stop_loss
06-18 15:37	ADA	Buy	0.165741→0.161509	-13.20	stop_loss
06-18 15:18	AVAX	Buy	6.61085→6.44516	-12.97	stop_loss
06-18 14:03	AVAX	Sell	6.73911→6.62346	+8.06	timeout
06-18 14:03	SOL	Sell	71.8042→71.1167	+4.24	timeout
06-18 10:09	ETH	Sell	1773.72→1742.37	+8.50	timeout
06-18 04:11	BNB	Buy	606.882→591.496	-13.13	stop_loss
06-18 03:28	KAS	Buy	0.031884→0.0310837	-13.00	stop_loss
06-17 22:06	DOT	Sell	1.02624→0.991248	+16.60	timeout
06-17 18:05	APT	Buy	0.687372→0.670097	-13.03	stop_loss
06-17 16:28	BTC	Sell	64824.8→66425.5	-12.80	stop_loss
06-17 14:10	SUI	Buy	0.794499→0.788403	-4.40	timeout
06-17 12:43	UNI	Sell	3.26288→3.34831	-13.54	stop_loss
06-17 09:57	XMR	Buy	352.568→343.762	-12.94	stop_loss
06-17 02:01	LINK	Sell	8.28473→8.35429	-4.54	timeout
06-17 01:46	DOT	Sell	1.00115→1.02637	-13.05	stop_loss
06-16 21:16	BCH	Sell	217.706→223.227	-13.13	stop_loss
06-16 17:49	SAGA	Buy	0.0129932→0.0135666	+21.61	take_profit
06-16 14:33	HYPE	Buy	75.0788→73.1961	-12.99	stop_loss
06-16 14:31	OP	Buy	0.108247→0.105451	-13.33	stop_loss
06-16 09:26	NEAR	Sell	2.45339→2.51559	-13.14	stop_loss
06-16 08:45	AVAX	Sell	6.82509→6.99684	-13.04	stop_loss
06-16 08:24	XLM	Sell	0.214046→0.219465	-13.11	stop_loss
06-16 02:18	SOL	Buy	75.1163→73.2524	-12.84	stop_loss
06-16 01:55	XRP	Buy	1.25961→1.22808	-12.99	stop_loss
06-15 22:25	ETH	Buy	1840.48→1795.02	-12.82	stop_loss
06-15 22:22	LINK	Buy	8.54083→8.32275	-13.25	stop_loss
06-15 18:09	LTC	Sell	45.3607→45.9875	-7.30	timeout
06-15 13:18	UNI	Buy	2.59825→2.71242	+21.52	take_profit
06-15 13:16	ETH	Buy	1727.67→1803.42	+21.44	take_profit
06-15 13:08	ETC	Buy	7.28342→7.605	+21.63	take_profit

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)

263

closed

41%

win rate

-192.88

total pnl ($)

-14.6 bps

avg bps net

Live (dry_run=0)

closed

—

win rate

—

total pnl ($)

—

avg bps net

Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbol	n	wr	net bps	total pnl ($)
SOL	15	40%	-68.9	-52.22
ETH	14	50%	+42.5	+30.04
LINK	13	46%	-38.8	-24.95
BTC	12	33%	-53.8	-32.49
BNB	11	45%	-57.8	-31.90
XRP	10	40%	-8.7	-4.24
SUI	9	44%	+57.3	+25.39
INJ	8	50%	+34.8	+13.92
LTC	8	50%	-3.8	-1.34
UNI	8	12%	-140.9	-56.38
DOT	8	38%	-64.6	-25.83
NEAR	7	29%	-65.8	-23.15
APT	7	14%	-194.8	-68.06
BCH	7	43%	-41.2	-14.41
HBAR	7	29%	-150.3	-52.62
KAS	7	43%	+9.1	+3.18
ARB	7	57%	+87.6	+30.66
ADA	7	43%	+14.0	+4.90
XLM	7	14%	-218.3	-76.41
ONDO	6	67%	+180.4	+54.11
SAGA	6	67%	+199.1	+59.73
XMR	6	33%	-51.2	-15.36
BLUR	6	83%	+280.5	+84.15
ATOM	6	67%	+85.9	+25.90
HYPE	6	33%	-30.5	-9.14
OP	6	67%	+157.2	+47.09
DOGE	6	50%	+13.4	+4.01
AAVE	6	33%	-131.4	-39.43
RENDER	5	40%	-32.5	-8.12
FIL	5	40%	-2.9	-0.71
AVAX	5	40%	-39.3	-10.05
ICP	4	25%	-90.2	-18.05
TRX	4	25%	-72.7	-14.54
ACE	4	25%	-106.6	-21.32
ETC	4	75%	+144.8	+28.96
GOAT	2	0%	-14.0	-1.40
CHILLGUY	2	0%	-14.0	-1.40
ZEREBRO	2	0%	-14.0	-1.40

Recent bounces (last 20 of 2)

time	sym	side	reason
06-28 00:10	OP	Buy	circuit_breaker
06-28 00:10	AVAX	Sell	circuit_breaker

Postmortem feed (last 10)

time	sym	side	pnl	narrative
no postmortems

More…