14
closed trades
64%
win rate
+46.77
total pnl ($)
1.285
weight
7d window — n=1 wr=100% pnl=+10.53
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-03 16:33:02 (23.6d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
strategies_batch_bj
n: 119
· wr: 42.9%
· total_bps: -928.8
· mean_bps: -7.80
· sharpe: -0.09
· max_dd_bps: -1381.8
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 14 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 02:16 | BTC | Sell | 59760→58446.9 | +10.53 | take_profit |
| 06-17 19:29 | BTC | Sell | 65815.7→64373.2 | +10.51 | take_profit |
| 06-15 15:47 | BTC | Sell | 66290.7→67198.9 | -7.30 | stop_loss |
| 06-12 16:01 | BTC | Sell | 63681.8→63656.2 | -0.23 | timeout |
| 06-12 00:02 | BTC | Sell | 63556.8→63583.2 | -0.64 | timeout |
| 06-07 22:04 | BTC | Sell | 62154.9→61829.1 | +2.17 | timeout |
| 06-04 10:28 | BTC | Sell | 63921.8→62521.1 | +10.49 | take_profit |
| 05-29 22:07 | BTC | Sell | 74011.3→73362.7 | +3.94 | timeout |
| 05-21 06:00 | BTC | Sell | 77829.1→77784.9 | -0.15 | timeout |
| 05-19 01:01 | BTC | Sell | 76885.2→77071.9 | -1.66 | timeout |
| 05-11 23:00 | BTC | Sell | 81833.9→81724.1 | +0.22 | timeout |
| 05-07 12:02 | BTC | Sell | 81406.9→80836 | +3.07 | timeout |
| 04-29 15:01 | BTC | Sell | 77579→76536 | +6.27 | timeout |
| 04-27 06:31 | BTC | Sell | 79060→77478 | +9.56 | take_profit |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
14
closed
64%
win rate
+46.77
total pnl ($)
+66.7 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 14 | 64% | +66.7 | +46.77 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-07 12:02 | BTC | Sell | +3.07 | BTC traded in a narrow range with low volatility, showing a slight hourly gain but remaining in a weekly downtrend. The short thesis failed because the market did not move decisively lower within the timeout period, leading to a small profit from time decay… |
| 04-29 15:01 | BTC | Sell | +6.27 | The market was consolidating with minimal 1-hour momentum (-0.13%) while maintaining slight positive 24-hour returns (+0.71%), indicating weak upside conviction after the initial rally that triggered your short. Your shooting star thesis failed because the … |
| 04-27 06:31 | BTC | Sell | +9.56 | BTC was consolidating near $77,613 with minimal intraday momentum (−0.11% 1h, −0.46% 24h) but maintained uptrend strength on the weekly (+4.49% 7d), providing a stable exit environment for a short position. The shooting star thesis worked: the 180-bps upper… |