btc_mempool_spike_fear_gate_short_v5

72

closed trades

44%

win rate

+109.74

total pnl ($)

1.516

weight

7d window — n=16 wr=38% pnl=+48.95 · venues=(unknown) · horizon=— · SL=— · TP=— · class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-06-03 21:46:33 (23.4d ago) · src: canon

verdict: PASS · strict: STRICT-PASS · batch: x3485394_17537

n: 24 · wr: 62.5% · total_bps: +1199.4 · mean_bps: +49.98 · sharpe: +0.41 · max_dd_bps: -351.1

gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

time	sym	side	entry→exit	pnl	close
06-27 05:55	BTC	Sell	59996→60222	-2.34	timeout
06-26 21:07	BTC	Sell	60051→59662	+2.84	timeout
06-26 06:46	BTC	Sell	58357.1→60436.2	-18.26	stop_loss
06-26 04:23	BTC	Sell	59743→59982	-2.48	timeout
06-25 13:59	BTC	Sell	60797→58121.9	+21.51	take_profit
06-25 13:53	BTC	Sell	61584.9→58822.9	+21.96	take_profit
06-25 04:50	BTC	Sell	60050→61062.1	-8.88	timeout
06-24 16:51	BTC	Sell	62626.9→59850	+21.66	take_profit
06-24 14:57	BTC	Sell	62638.9→61033.1	+12.34	timeout
06-24 03:14	BTC	Sell	62309.9→62599.1	-2.74	timeout
06-23 20:23	BTC	Sell	62354.9→62456.1	-1.26	timeout
06-23 05:56	BTC	Sell	64614.8→63427.2	+8.76	timeout
06-22 22:04	BTC	Sell	64173.8→64354.2	-1.85	timeout
06-22 05:13	BTC	Sell	64168.8→64227.2	-0.90	timeout
06-21 09:24	BTC	Sell	63919.8→63989.2	-0.92	timeout
06-21 03:20	BTC	Sell	64280.8→64287.2	-0.50	timeout
06-20 04:53	BTC	Sell	63073.8→63554.2	-4.26	timeout
06-19 21:24	BTC	Sell	62368.9→63210.2	-7.17	timeout
06-19 11:43	BTC	Sell	62892.9→62633.1	+1.57	timeout
06-19 03:34	BTC	Sell	63239.8→62748.1	+3.40	timeout
06-18 18:47	BTC	Sell	64068.8→62757.1	+9.65	timeout
06-18 05:53	BTC	Sell	66046.7→63857.2	+16.14	timeout
06-17 23:49	BTC	Sell	64819.8→64461.2	+2.31	timeout
06-17 07:43	BTC	Sell	65606.7→65524.3	+0.19	timeout
06-17 00:24	BTC	Sell	66538.7→65710.3	+5.82	timeout
06-16 10:41	BTC	Sell	66323.7→66566.3	-2.26	timeout
06-16 04:22	BTC	Sell	67124.6→66084.3	+7.27	timeout
06-15 22:19	BTC	Sell	65697.7→66342.3	-5.33	timeout
06-15 09:14	BTC	Sell	64067.8→65669.3	-12.96	timeout
06-14 22:26	BTC	Sell	64576.8→65168.3	-5.01	timeout
06-14 10:52	BTC	Sell	64463.8→64537.2	-1.01	timeout
06-14 04:20	BTC	Sell	64037.8→64503.2	-4.11	timeout
06-13 22:15	BTC	Sell	63730.8→64393.2	-5.63	timeout
06-13 14:41	BTC	Sell	63670.8→64192.2	-4.52	timeout
06-13 08:37	BTC	Sell	63515.8→63843.2	-2.98	timeout
06-13 02:03	BTC	Sell	63332.8→63796.2	-4.08	timeout
06-12 19:58	BTC	Sell	63067.8→63598.2	-4.65	timeout
06-12 13:45	BTC	Sell	63399.8→63132.2	+1.70	timeout
06-12 07:35	BTC	Sell	63693.8→62975.1	+5.21	timeout
06-12 01:37	BTC	Sell	62806.9→63301.2	-4.33	timeout
06-11 18:57	BTC	Sell	62722.9→63505.2	-6.62	timeout
06-11 09:12	BTC	Sell	61520.9→62822.1	-10.97	timeout
06-11 03:05	BTC	Sell	62097.9→62149.1	-0.83	timeout
06-10 07:14	BTC	Sell	61763.9→62023.1	-2.60	timeout
06-10 01:09	BTC	Sell	62650.9→62023.1	+4.51	timeout
06-09 18:40	BTC	Sell	63336.8→61729.1	+12.28	timeout
06-09 12:01	BTC	Sell	63046.8→62760.1	+1.80	timeout
06-09 05:06	BTC	Sell	63499.8→63186.2	+2.02	timeout
06-08 23:01	BTC	Sell	63072.8→63419.2	-3.18	timeout
06-08 16:00	BTC	Sell	63096.8→63764.2	-5.66	timeout
06-08 02:36	BTC	Sell	62217.9→62894.1	-5.86	timeout
06-07 09:30	BTC	Sell	60887→62644.1	-14.89	timeout
06-07 03:08	BTC	Sell	60601→61458.1	-7.49	timeout
06-06 21:03	BTC	Sell	61196.9→60709	+3.50	timeout
06-06 14:58	BTC	Sell	60934→60851	+0.23	timeout
06-05 21:04	BTC	Sell	59828→61960.1	-18.27	stop_loss
06-05 19:01	BTC	Sell	61759.9→59161	+20.62	timeout
06-05 18:55	BTC	Sell	61825.9→59111	+21.52	take_profit
06-05 11:56	BTC	Sell	63773.8→62046.1	+13.11	timeout
06-05 05:53	BTC	Sell	63517.8→62834.1	+4.90	timeout
06-04 21:58	BTC	Sell	63180.8→63284.2	-1.28	timeout
06-04 17:01	BTC	Sell	64164.8→63519.2	+4.62	timeout
06-04 01:50	BTC	Sell	65287.7→62421.1	+21.50	take_profit
06-04 00:25	BTC	Sell	66828.7→63894.2	+21.49	take_profit
06-03 17:16	BTC	Sell	67205.6→65749.3	+10.41	timeout
06-03 14:12	BTC	Sell	66822.7→66780.3	-0.11	timeout
06-03 05:06	BTC	Sell	67540.6→66957.3	+3.88	timeout
06-02 20:11	BTC	Sell	69965.5→67378.4	+18.02	timeout
05-30 22:31	BTC	Sell	73613.3→73857.7	-2.05	timeout
05-30 02:54	BTC	Sell	72931.4→73753.7	-6.07	timeout
05-29 07:44	BTC	Sell	73414.3→73378.7	-0.19	timeout
05-29 00:44	BTC	Sell	73466.3→73781.7	-2.52	timeout

Paper (trades.jsonl)

72

closed

44%

win rate

+109.74

total pnl ($)

+30.3 bps

avg bps net

Live (dry_run=0)

0

closed

—

win rate

—

total pnl ($)

—

avg bps net

Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

symbol	n	wr	net bps	total pnl ($)
BTC	72	44%	+30.3	+109.74

time	sym	side	reason
06-27 00:14	BTC	Sell	stale_intent
06-26 09:23	BTC	Sell	stale_intent
06-26 02:41	BTC	Sell	stale_intent
06-26 02:41	BTC	Sell	stale_intent
06-24 17:06	BTC	Sell	stale_intent
06-24 10:24	BTC	Sell	stale_intent
06-24 10:23	BTC	Sell	stale_intent

time	sym	side	pnl	narrative
no postmortems

More…

Cumulative P&L (last 72 closed)

Last 100 trades

Paper vs Live

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

Recent bounces (last 20 of 7)

Postmortem feed (last 10)