btc_hourly_serial_momentum_follow

not live
5
closed trades
20%
win rate
-12.14
total pnl ($)
1.109
weight
7d window — n=2 wr=0% pnl=-6.14  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-28 21:56 (32.3d ago) · src: backtest-gate-results.jsonl
verdict: PASS  ·  strict: STRICT-FAIL  ·  batch: ad
n: 14  ·  wr: 42.9%  ·  total_bps: +432.5  ·  mean_bps: +30.89  ·  sharpe: +0.35  ·  max_dd_bps: -115.6
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=None

Cumulative P&L (last 5 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-26 13:48BTCSell58937.1→59564.7-5.77stop_loss
06-23 10:59BTCSell62330.9→62318.1-0.36timeout
06-06 05:21BTCSell59716→60361.2-5.85stop_loss
05-23 23:11BTCBuy77012.9→76694.2-2.52timeout
04-29 18:25BTCSell75715→75288+2.37timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
5
closed
20%
win rate
-12.14
total pnl ($)
-48.5 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC520%-48.5-12.14

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
04-29 18:25BTCSell+2.37BTC declined 0.90% in the hour before trade closure and was down 4.38% over the week, creating a bearish macro backdrop that favored the short position. The thesis worked because the 4-hourly momentum signal (22/38/54/65 bps acceleration collapsing to -179 …