btc_fib_618_pullback_long

not live
11
closed trades
18%
win rate
-41.85
total pnl ($)
0.933
weight
7d window — n=3 wr=0% pnl=-15.94  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-06-04 03:09:36 (18.0d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT  ·  strict: STRICT-FAIL  ·  batch: bk
n: 38  ·  wr: 47.4%  ·  total_bps: -488.9  ·  mean_bps: -12.87  ·  sharpe: -0.15  ·  max_dd_bps: -549.0
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 11 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-17 19:29BTCBuy65247.3→64354.6-7.29stop_loss
06-16 14:32BTCBuy66228.3→65328.1-7.25stop_loss
06-16 01:07BTCBuy66397.3→66270.7-1.40timeout
06-13 01:44BTCBuy63559.2→63761.8+1.13timeout
06-12 17:24BTCBuy63366.2→63755.8+2.62timeout
05-11 04:53BTCBuy81374.1→80802-3.98timeout
05-06 17:21BTCBuy82008.1→81473.9-3.70timeout
05-04 10:07BTCBuy79709→78628.7-7.22stop_loss
04-27 05:30BTCBuy78683→77738-6.46stop_loss
04-23 17:40BTCBuy77861→76926-6.35stop_loss
04-22 20:45BTCBuy78713→78462-1.94timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
11
closed
18%
win rate
-41.85
total pnl ($)
-76.0 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC1118%-76.0-41.85

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
05-06 17:21BTCBuy-3.70The market was in a mild downtrend across timeframes, with BTC and ETH both declining over the past week. The thesis failed because the trade was closed due to timeout, indicating the expected directional move did not materialize within the allowed window.
04-27 05:30BTCBuy-6.46Bitcoin was declining sharply in the final hour before the trade closed, dropping 1.73% as the broader market weakened with ETH also falling 2.57% in the same period. The long trade thesis failed because BTC broke below the 78,053 swing low that defined the…
04-22 20:45BTCBuy-1.94BTC was trading sideways to slightly lower at the time of timeout exit, with elevated open interest of $4B and modest positive funding suggesting balanced but firm conviction among leverage traders. The Fibonacci 61.8 pullback setup failed because price nev…