btc_failed_breakout_retest

not live
86
closed trades
42%
win rate
-55.03
total pnl ($)
1.295
weight
7d window — n=10 wr=60% pnl=+11.91  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?


Cumulative P&L (last 86 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-27 09:00BTCSell60206→60430-2.30timeout
06-26 18:58BTCBuy59610→59582-0.71timeout
06-26 10:26BTCSell59962→59761+1.24timeout
06-25 13:03BTCSell61652.9→61255.1+2.76timeout
06-24 20:46BTCBuy59602→60908+10.52take_profit
06-24 13:22BTCBuy62661.1→61808-7.26stop_loss
06-22 19:06BTCSell64936.8→64337.2+4.17timeout
06-22 03:09BTCBuy63679.2→64004.8+2.09timeout
06-21 09:01BTCSell64263.8→63955.2+1.98timeout
06-20 21:05BTCSell63909.8→63927.2-0.59timeout
06-20 06:03BTCSell63507.8→63680.2-1.81timeout
06-19 15:03BTCBuy62522.1→63090.8+4.12timeout
06-18 10:02BTCBuy63970.2→64143.8+0.89timeout
06-17 16:28BTCBuy64911.2→66359.7+10.71take_profit
06-17 07:15BTCBuy65790.3→65664.7-1.41timeout
06-16 12:00BTCSell66320.7→66435.3-1.30timeout
06-16 04:00BTCBuy66287.3→66133.7-1.60timeout
06-15 05:01BTCSell65518.7→65598.3-1.05timeout
06-14 12:00BTCBuy64397.2→64536.8+0.64timeout
06-13 21:28BTCSell64049.8→64236.2-1.90timeout
06-13 13:06BTCSell63815.8→64130.2-2.90timeout
06-12 21:37BTCSell63875.8→63545.2+2.15timeout
06-12 15:04BTCSell63781.8→63935.2-1.63timeout
06-12 00:01BTCSell63563.8→63598.2-0.71timeout
06-11 14:01BTCSell62900.9→62985.1-1.10timeout
06-11 07:35BTCSell62454.9→62705.1-2.43timeout
06-10 21:24BTCSell62057.9→61575.1+3.44timeout
06-10 15:15BTCBuy61116.1→61847.9+5.53timeout
06-09 14:19BTCBuy62563.1→61711-7.26stop_loss
06-08 18:06BTCSell63657.8→63594.2+0.07timeout
06-07 22:14BTCBuy61682.1→63032.8+10.50take_profit
06-07 08:28BTCSell61729.9→62586.4-7.39stop_loss
06-05 18:52BTCBuy60238→59418.3-7.25stop_loss
06-05 06:03BTCBuy62888.1→62030.9-7.27stop_loss
06-03 23:03BTCBuy65345.3→64455.5-7.26stop_loss
06-02 07:02BTCBuy70774.5→69797.6-7.37stop_loss
06-01 04:09BTCSell73724.3→73649.7+0.06timeout
05-31 15:02BTCBuy73916.7→73591.3-2.66timeout
05-30 23:59BTCSell73976.3→73840.7+0.47timeout
05-29 03:19BTCSell73582.3→73382.7+0.93timeout
05-28 20:00BTCBuy72888.6→73412.3+3.12timeout
05-28 03:18BTCBuy74458.7→73435.6-7.32stop_loss
05-27 20:21BTCBuy75063.8→75293.2+1.07timeout
05-27 09:59BTCBuy75687.8→75875.2+0.81timeout
05-27 04:00BTCBuy75898.8→75609.2-2.35timeout
05-26 20:59BTCBuy76517.8→76045.2-3.55timeout
05-26 07:59BTCBuy76622.8→76666.2-0.17timeout
05-26 01:59BTCBuy77328.9→76710.2-4.45timeout
05-25 12:03BTCSell77300.1→77276.9-0.28timeout
05-25 06:03BTCSell76999.1→77334.9-2.61timeout
05-24 12:00BTCSell76777.2→77286.9-3.76timeout
05-23 06:00BTCBuy75467.8→75444.2-0.61timeout
05-22 19:30BTCBuy76936.8→75868.3-7.40stop_loss
05-22 13:59BTCBuy77288.9→77222.1-0.90timeout
05-21 23:52BTCSell77716.1→77711.9-0.41timeout
05-21 16:59BTCBuy77256.9→77133.1-1.26timeout
05-21 07:00BTCSell77928.1→77567.9+1.88timeout
05-20 18:16BTCSell77456.1→77463.9-0.48timeout
05-20 12:00BTCSell77249.1→77379.9-1.28timeout
05-19 04:00BTCSell76982.2→76762.8+0.99timeout
05-18 20:59BTCBuy76409.8→76896.2+2.72timeout
05-18 12:36BTCBuy76875.8→77520.1+3.72timeout
05-15 12:30BTCBuy80498→80488-0.51timeout
05-12 02:43BTCBuy81724.1→81715.9-0.52timeout
05-12 00:01BTCSell81968.9→81724.1+1.04timeout
05-10 23:02BTCSell81252.9→82355.3-7.23stop_loss
05-10 07:01BTCBuy80753→80721-0.65timeout
05-09 08:01BTCSell80366→80220+0.47timeout
05-08 17:01BTCSell80016→79832+0.71timeout
05-07 15:26BTCBuy80814→79719.1-7.23stop_loss
05-07 07:01BTCBuy81069.1→81381.9+1.48timeout
05-06 17:17BTCSell82088.9→81360.1+3.98timeout
05-04 20:02BTCSell79920→79937-0.57timeout
05-04 09:01BTCSell80338→79633+3.94timeout
05-03 15:02BTCSell78339.1→78736.9-2.97timeout
05-03 08:01BTCBuy78135.9→78345.1+0.89timeout
05-02 22:01BTCSell78336.1→78712.9-2.86timeout
05-01 13:10BTCSell77205.1→78252-7.23stop_loss
05-01 07:01BTCSell76542.2→76946.8-3.11timeout
04-30 06:01BTCSell76190→75548+3.76timeout
04-29 02:01BTCSell76339→76585-2.06timeout
04-28 20:00BTCBuy76015→76344+1.71timeout
04-28 12:02BTCBuy76818→76172-4.65timeout
04-27 22:01BTCBuy76708→76791+0.09timeout
04-27 07:04BTCSell79143→77673+8.84timeout
04-27 00:55BTCSell78161→79178-6.96stop_loss

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
86
closed
42%
win rate
-55.03
total pnl ($)
-12.8 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC8642%-12.8-55.03

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
05-10 07:01BTCBuy-0.65BTC was trading in a narrow range with low volatility, showing a slight 1-hour decline but a positive 24-hour trend. The trade failed because the timeout close_reason indicates the position was held too long without reaching a target or stop, likely due to …
05-09 08:01BTCSell+0.47BTC traded in a narrow range with low volatility, showing a slight hourly uptick but a broader weekly decline. The short thesis failed because the timeout closed the trade before the anticipated downward move materialized, capturing only minor funding gains.
05-08 17:01BTCSell+0.71The market was in a low-funding, sideways consolidation with stable open interest, offering no clear directional edge. The thesis failed because the timeout close reason indicates the trade lacked a catalyst to trigger an entry, resulting in no active posit…
05-07 15:26BTCBuy-7.23The market was trending downward with elevated open interest, indicating persistent selling pressure. The thesis failed because the stop-loss was triggered as the price continued to decline against the long position.
05-07 07:01BTCBuy+1.48The market was in a mild downtrend across timeframes, with BTC down 1.52% over 24 hours and negative momentum persisting. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout without reaching its target or stop, as the sideways-to-bearish regime did no…
05-06 17:17BTCSell+3.98The market was in a mild downtrend with BTC declining 1.47% over 24 hours and negative funding rates. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected move materialized, as the slow grind lower did not trigger an exit condition.
05-04 20:02BTCSell-0.57The market was in a state of consolidation with flat hourly momentum and neutral funding rates, creating a low-volatility environment. The trade failed because the thesis could not be validated within the allotted time, resulting in a timeout exit before an…
05-02 22:01BTCSell-2.86Bitcoin drifted lower in the hour before close (-0.39% 1h), failing to sustain momentum in a choppy range where funding remained elevated at 0.09%, signaling weak conviction among longs. The thesis faltered because the retest of the failed breakout (78333–7…
05-01 13:10BTCSell-7.23Bitcoin's intraday momentum was consolidating higher at close ($78,313, +0.74% 1h, +2.69% 24h), with positive funding rates (0.0224%) signaling residual bullish positioning despite the 7-day stagnation. The trade thesis failed because the retest of the prio…
05-01 07:01BTCSell-3.11Bitcoin rallied 1.59% over 24h into the close, with BTC pushing to $76,969 (above the entry at $76,542) as the retest failed to hold the lower bound of the prior 8h range, contradicting the fade signal. The trade's thesis broke because price never retested …