54
closed trades
39%
win rate
-169.06
total pnl ($)
1.512
weight
7d window — n=12 wr=67% pnl=+47.54
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-04 04:38:21 (23.5d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
gx
n: 47
· wr: 36.2%
· total_bps: -1834.6
· mean_bps: -39.03
· sharpe: -0.26
· max_dd_bps: -2076.4
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 54 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 08:46 | XRP | Buy | 1.03286→1.03874 | +2.32 | timeout |
| 06-26 07:14 | ADA | Buy | 0.140655→0.146803 | +21.41 | take_profit |
| 06-25 12:21 | XRP | Buy | 1.07497→1.06873 | -3.36 | timeout |
| 06-25 12:08 | ADA | Buy | 0.148327→0.147463 | -3.38 | timeout |
| 06-25 05:08 | SOL | Buy | 65.9929→68.8837 | +21.50 | take_profit |
| 06-25 05:06 | ETH | Buy | 1575.66→1644.74 | +21.45 | take_profit |
| 06-25 04:06 | XRP | Buy | 1.06016→1.07063 | +4.53 | timeout |
| 06-24 17:21 | ADA | Buy | 0.143746→0.140075 | -13.22 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 16:51 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0754409→0.0735538 | -12.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 08:38 | SOL | Buy | 68.9303→69.4246 | +3.18 | timeout |
| 06-24 04:04 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0787387→0.0790182 | +1.34 | timeout |
| 06-24 00:34 | SOL | Buy | 69.0734→69.7645 | +4.71 | timeout |
| 06-19 20:18 | ADA | Buy | 0.15993→0.16056 | +1.71 | timeout |
| 06-19 04:36 | ADA | Buy | 0.163421→0.15928 | -13.13 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 04:10 | ADA | Buy | 0.16135→0.16163 | +0.39 | timeout |
| 06-19 04:06 | ETH | Buy | 1687.87→1694.63 | +1.53 | timeout |
| 06-18 12:18 | SOL | Buy | 72.2948→71.0383 | -9.12 | timeout |
| 06-18 12:08 | ADA | Buy | 0.167272→0.164689 | -8.22 | timeout |
| 06-17 20:19 | XRP | Buy | 1.2031→1.1809 | -9.65 | timeout |
| 06-17 20:07 | SOL | Buy | 73.121→71.7692 | -9.77 | timeout |
| 06-17 19:44 | ADA | Buy | 0.168862→0.164576 | -13.19 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 11:02 | ADA | Buy | 0.172533→0.168204 | -13.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:25 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0905226→0.0882538 | -12.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 04:09 | ADA | Buy | 0.162821→0.168578 | +17.23 | timeout |
| 06-10 04:08 | SOL | Buy | 64.0406→65.5232 | +11.15 | timeout |
| 06-10 04:08 | DOGE | Buy | 0.083857→0.0850547 | +6.70 | timeout |
| 06-09 16:05 | ETH | Buy | 1671.17→1629.82 | -12.79 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 05:57 | XRP | Buy | 1.14349→1.13532 | -4.00 | timeout |
| 06-07 22:14 | ETH | Buy | 1630.76→1703.53 | +21.89 | take_profit |
| 06-07 19:35 | SOL | Buy | 65.3048→63.6856 | -12.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 17:14 | SOL | Buy | 64.1356→65.4252 | +9.92 | timeout |
| 06-04 23:35 | XRP | Buy | 1.15239→1.16351 | +4.37 | timeout |
| 06-04 21:34 | ADA | Buy | 0.185176→0.180535 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 21:28 | SOL | Buy | 69.9435→68.1917 | -12.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 20:10 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0886922→0.0885579 | -1.28 | timeout |
| 06-04 09:29 | SOL | Buy | 69.5034→67.7769 | -12.83 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 09:27 | ADA | Buy | 0.193798→0.188958 | -12.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 09:12 | XRP | Buy | 1.1829→1.15323 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 01:52 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0908027→0.0885336 | -12.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 01:22 | SOL | Buy | 71.1417→69.3739 | -12.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 00:39 | ADA | Buy | 0.20092→0.195853 | -13.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-04 00:29 | SOL | Buy | 72.5009→70.679 | -12.91 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 22:52 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0940755→0.0917152 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 19:33 | XRP | Buy | 1.23731→1.20639 | -12.91 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 19:29 | SOL | Buy | 77.3236→75.405 | -12.84 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 14:27 | ADA | Buy | 0.223666→0.217966 | -13.19 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 14:22 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0992468→0.0967294 | -13.05 | stop_loss |
| 05-31 14:34 | ADA | Buy | 0.236489→0.234481 | -4.69 | timeout |
| 05-30 21:54 | ADA | Buy | 0.235179→0.237411 | +4.28 | timeout |
| 05-30 20:28 | ADA | Buy | 0.235049→0.236891 | +3.45 | timeout |
| 05-09 20:09 | ADA | Buy | 0.275709→0.272392 | -6.52 | timeout |
| 05-09 12:03 | ADA | Buy | 0.273448→0.273592 | -0.19 | timeout |
| 05-08 20:06 | ETH | Buy | 2279.53→2313.17 | +6.85 | timeout |
| 04-29 04:09 | ETH | Buy | 2277.8→2309.6 | +6.53 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
54
closed
39%
win rate
-169.06
total pnl ($)
-63.0 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA | 19 | 32% | -83.4 | -79.22 |
| SOL | 13 | 38% | -71.4 | -45.52 |
| DOGE | 8 | 25% | -145.5 | -58.11 |
| XRP | 8 | 38% | -79.3 | -31.67 |
| ETH | 6 | 83% | +151.7 | +45.46 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-09 20:09 | ADA | Buy | -6.52 | The market was in a low-volatility, sideways grind with neutral funding and moderate open interest. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout without reaching a target or stop, indicating the expected directional move did not materialize wit… |
| 05-09 12:03 | ADA | Buy | -0.19 | ADA was declining across all timeframes in a risk-off environment, with negative funding and falling BTC/ETH. The thesis failed because the timeout closed the trade before any reversal materialized, as the persistent downtrend prevented the entry from being… |
| 05-08 20:06 | ETH | Buy | +6.85 | The market was in a short-term uptrend within a broader weekly decline, with ETH recovering 0.44% on the hour but still down over 2% on the day. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected continuation materialized, as the … |