btc_4h_tail_drop_bounce

not live
15
closed trades
67%
win rate
-7.94
total pnl ($)
1.126
weight
7d window — n=2 wr=100% pnl=+2.62  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-19 23:06:18 (33.4d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT  ·  strict: STRICT-FAIL  ·  batch: ad
n: 77  ·  wr: 41.6%  ·  total_bps: -1821.5  ·  mean_bps: -23.66  ·  sharpe: -0.19  ·  max_dd_bps: -2671.0
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 15 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-18 19:42BTCBuy62710.1→62868.9+0.85timeout
06-18 00:11BTCBuy64315.2→64601.8+1.78timeout
06-09 18:35BTCBuy61438.1→61720.9+1.84timeout
06-06 08:20BTCBuy60064→61120.9+8.33timeout
06-05 13:57BTCBuy61618.1→60779.6-7.25stop_loss
06-05 06:24BTCBuy61905.1→61063.4-7.25stop_loss
06-04 13:28BTCBuy62933.1→63193.8+1.64timeout
06-02 13:14BTCBuy69539.5→68906.6-5.00timeout
05-28 08:03BTCBuy73015.7→73312.3+1.58timeout
05-26 22:23BTCBuy76202.8→75729.2-3.56timeout
05-18 05:35BTCBuy76811.8→76989.2+0.69timeout
05-15 17:52BTCBuy78743.9→79386+3.63timeout
05-11 07:16BTCBuy80535→80736+0.78timeout
04-29 18:09BTCBuy75981→74992-6.96stop_loss
04-27 10:31BTCBuy77572→77794+0.98timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
15
closed
67%
win rate
-7.94
total pnl ($)
-10.6 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC1567%-10.6-7.94

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
04-29 18:09BTCBuy-6.96BTC was in a sustained downtrend across multiple timeframes (down 1.52% over 24h and 4.69% over 7d), with accelerating weakness in the 1h (-1.16%) and elevated open interest ($3.69B) signaling crowded longs vulnerable to liquidation cascades. The trade's th…
04-27 10:31BTCBuy+0.98BTC was consolidating near $77,879 with minimal intraday volatility (1h change of -0.03%) after a strong 7-day rally of +4.20%, suggesting weakening momentum and potential mean reversion. The trade's thesis worked: the 4-hour drop of -204 bps from $77,572 e…