200
closed trades
39%
win rate
-115.06
total pnl ($)
0.250
weight
7d window — n=42 wr=29% pnl=-195.86
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-03 20:04:37 (23.9d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
avz
n: 148
· wr: 39.2%
· total_bps: +381.0
· mean_bps: +2.57
· sharpe: +0.01
· max_dd_bps: -5238.1
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 13:36 | SAGA | Buy | 0.0134534→0.0130802 | -14.32 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 12:16 | BLUR | Sell | 0.0147763→0.0151554 | -13.28 | stop_loss |
| 06-27 07:32 | INJ | Sell | 4.86408→4.98654 | -13.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 22:04 | AAVE | Buy | 95.0067→92.5715 | -13.27 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 16:03 | TRX | Buy | 0.322901→0.3196 | -5.56 | timeout |
| 06-26 13:57 | HYPE | Sell | 62.1974→63.7588 | -13.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 07:04 | UNI | Sell | 2.85229→2.92379 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 03:02 | ICP | Sell | 2.17776→2.08132 | +21.69 | take_profit |
| 06-26 03:02 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0731073→0.0711996 | -13.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 01:30 | APT | Buy | 0.596649→0.581364 | -13.17 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:46 | XRP | Buy | 1.07177→1.04492 | -12.93 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:42 | APT | Buy | 0.630158→0.614239 | -13.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 10:47 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0754018→0.0735118 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:24 | BTC | Sell | 60292→61779 | -12.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 04:52 | ETH | Sell | 1591.14→1630.58 | -12.83 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 22:01 | SUI | Sell | 0.673931→0.690858 | -13.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 17:48 | BLUR | Sell | 0.0149563→0.0142966 | +21.60 | take_profit |
| 06-24 17:48 | INJ | Sell | 4.31462→4.12673 | +21.31 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | OP | Sell | 0.101845→0.0971543 | +22.52 | take_profit |
| 06-24 13:48 | UNI | Buy | 2.90923→2.83637 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 12:05 | ARB | Buy | 0.0788797→0.0786203 | -2.16 | timeout |
| 06-24 12:05 | SOL | Sell | 69.1616→69.8255 | -5.24 | timeout |
| 06-24 08:04 | ETH | Sell | 1677.83→1673.07 | +1.06 | timeout |
| 06-24 08:04 | BTC | Sell | 62796.9→62661.1 | +0.71 | timeout |
| 06-23 15:47 | ATOM | Sell | 1.79885→1.72013 | +21.37 | take_profit |
| 06-23 10:59 | SUI | Sell | 0.685169→0.702336 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 10:51 | XLM | Buy | 0.195739→0.190747 | -13.20 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | LINK | Buy | 7.86036→7.66395 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:20 | BNB | Buy | 595.219→580.295 | -12.87 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:08 | BTC | Buy | 64693.2→63077.3 | -12.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 04:10 | ADA | Buy | 0.15852→0.15972 | +3.44 | timeout |
| 06-22 12:25 | BCH | Sell | 198.47→203.533 | -13.20 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 12:00 | SUI | Buy | 0.709757→0.740655 | +21.29 | take_profit |
| 06-22 08:06 | UNI | Buy | 3.00775→3.01115 | +0.11 | timeout |
| 06-22 04:06 | HBAR | Sell | 0.0803749→0.0786687 | +10.16 | timeout |
| 06-22 00:37 | AAVE | Sell | 73.9635→75.8168 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 00:37 | APT | Sell | 0.651837→0.668301 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 16:09 | SUI | Sell | 0.709173→0.712188 | -2.43 | timeout |
| 06-21 10:17 | LTC | Sell | 44.088→45.1969 | -13.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 08:06 | RENDER | Sell | 1.74206→1.68872 | +14.86 | timeout |
| 06-21 06:18 | SAGA | Sell | 0.0136466→0.0139905 | -13.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 22:28 | AAVE | Sell | 74.3054→76.1671 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 12:15 | ACE | Buy | 0.0852213→0.0829378 | -13.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 12:05 | XRP | Buy | 1.12718→1.14751 | +8.63 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:06 | SOL | Sell | 68.7767→69.9935 | -9.17 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:06 | BCH | Sell | 196.741→197.469 | -2.30 | timeout |
| 06-19 15:43 | HYPE | Sell | 67.869→69.5681 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 13:45 | OP | Buy | 0.100855→0.105294 | +21.55 | take_profit |
| 06-19 04:33 | AAVE | Buy | 73.9495→72.0879 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 03:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.36519→6.20504 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 16:02 | TRX | Sell | 0.32124→0.318059 | +4.50 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:53 | LINK | Buy | 7.9998→7.79825 | -13.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:45 | ETH | Sell | 1773.12→1695.27 | +21.49 | take_profit |
| 06-18 15:44 | SOL | Sell | 72.0832→68.9103 | +21.54 | take_profit |
| 06-18 10:12 | ATOM | Buy | 1.84426→1.79795 | -13.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 04:12 | ACE | Buy | 0.083821→0.0816387 | -13.47 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 01:08 | FIL | Sell | 0.785853→0.805604 | -13.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 19:38 | SUI | Buy | 0.794499→0.774419 | -13.23 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 18:05 | APT | Buy | 0.687372→0.670097 | -13.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 16:28 | BTC | Sell | 64824.8→66425.5 | -12.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 12:43 | UNI | Sell | 3.26288→3.34831 | -13.54 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 17:49 | SAGA | Buy | 0.0129932→0.0135666 | +21.61 | take_profit |
| 06-16 16:03 | TRX | Sell | 0.32095→0.317239 | +5.33 | timeout |
| 06-16 14:33 | HYPE | Buy | 75.0788→73.1961 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 09:26 | NEAR | Sell | 2.45339→2.51559 | -13.14 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:25 | INJ | Sell | 5.77456→5.91934 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:24 | XLM | Sell | 0.214046→0.219465 | -13.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 02:11 | SOL | Buy | 75.3183→73.4372 | -12.93 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 01:55 | XRP | Buy | 1.25961→1.22808 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:25 | ETH | Buy | 1840.48→1795.02 | -12.82 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:22 | LINK | Buy | 8.54083→8.32595 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 18:52 | APT | Buy | 0.712178→0.69358 | -13.52 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 13:16 | ETH | Buy | 1726.57→1803.42 | +21.77 | take_profit |
| 06-15 13:08 | ETC | Buy | 7.28342→7.605 | +21.63 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:43 | UNI | Buy | 2.59085→2.70402 | +21.39 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:24 | XRP | Buy | 1.1838→1.23539 | +21.32 | take_profit |
| 06-15 04:02 | LTC | Sell | 44.4069→45.3183 | -10.73 | timeout |
| 06-14 21:50 | BCH | Sell | 203.349→208.516 | -13.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 21:25 | ADA | Sell | 0.166898→0.171128 | -13.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 18:22 | AVAX | Sell | 6.70382→6.4102 | +21.29 | take_profit |
| 06-14 14:30 | NEAR | Buy | 2.12843→2.07444 | -13.27 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 12:06 | AAVE | Sell | 66.7793→65.9905 | +5.46 | timeout |
| 06-14 04:33 | BLUR | Buy | 0.0185016→0.0180315 | -13.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 03:43 | XLM | Buy | 0.190007→0.185201 | -13.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 01:34 | ICP | Sell | 2.58015→2.46692 | +21.49 | take_profit |
| 06-13 20:04 | TRX | Buy | 0.312238→0.317901 | +8.62 | timeout |
| 06-13 06:34 | APT | Sell | 0.647038→0.663497 | -13.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 06:10 | OP | Sell | 0.100285→0.102977 | -14.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 04:07 | SUI | Sell | 0.755461→0.749787 | +3.28 | timeout |
| 06-13 04:03 | DOT | Buy | 0.943656→0.966058 | +11.42 | timeout |
| 06-12 04:31 | ADA | Buy | 0.165841→0.173087 | +21.24 | take_profit |
| 06-12 04:05 | FIL | Buy | 0.757569→0.75798 | -0.18 | timeout |
| 06-12 00:30 | XMR | Sell | 386.573→396.297 | -13.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 17:03 | NEAR | Buy | 2.02331→1.97272 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 12:06 | LTC | Buy | 42.1115→42.5754 | +4.93 | timeout |
| 06-11 03:55 | AVAX | Sell | 6.3903→6.55992 | -13.71 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 01:41 | SOL | Sell | 63.2795→64.8521 | -12.87 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 01:16 | XMR | Buy | 326.532→340.885 | +21.53 | take_profit |
| 06-10 17:29 | ADA | Buy | 0.164561→0.16042 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 16:46 | ARB | Buy | 0.0807802→0.0787109 | -13.26 | stop_loss |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
200
closed
39%
win rate
-115.06
total pnl ($)
-11.6 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
15
closed
20%
win rate
-64.12
total pnl ($)
-155.7 bps
avg bps net
Live WR is 51% of paper WR (20% vs 39%)
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 9 | 78% | +151.7 | +68.44 |
| SUI | 9 | 44% | -3.4 | -1.41 |
| NEAR | 8 | 25% | -89.2 | -35.91 |
| SAGA | 8 | 62% | +139.0 | +55.62 |
| APT | 8 | 12% | -176.3 | -70.16 |
| AAVE | 8 | 38% | -43.0 | -17.18 |
| SOL | 8 | 25% | -77.5 | -30.76 |
| XLM | 7 | 29% | -64.0 | -22.39 |
| XRP | 7 | 57% | +69.7 | +24.15 |
| BTC | 7 | 29% | -127.6 | -44.41 |
| UNI | 7 | 43% | -27.5 | -9.64 |
| ATOM | 6 | 33% | -30.8 | -9.16 |
| BLUR | 6 | 50% | +88.0 | +26.41 |
| DOT | 6 | 50% | +18.8 | +5.65 |
| XMR | 6 | 67% | +197.8 | +59.35 |
| LTC | 6 | 33% | -77.4 | -23.44 |
| INJ | 6 | 33% | -31.0 | -9.30 |
| OP | 5 | 60% | +139.1 | +34.60 |
| LINK | 5 | 40% | +17.1 | +4.39 |
| HYPE | 5 | 20% | -122.5 | -30.62 |
| AVAX | 5 | 40% | -38.2 | -9.52 |
| ADA | 5 | 60% | +79.7 | +19.89 |
| TRX | 5 | 60% | +30.2 | +7.55 |
| HBAR | 4 | 25% | -157.7 | -31.54 |
| ACE | 4 | 0% | -295.2 | -59.04 |
| ONDO | 4 | 50% | +87.1 | +17.42 |
| ETC | 4 | 50% | +121.1 | +24.22 |
| BCH | 4 | 0% | -208.4 | -41.67 |
| ICP | 4 | 50% | +72.8 | +14.56 |
| RENDER | 3 | 100% | +390.1 | +58.51 |
| DOGE | 3 | 33% | -140.7 | -20.48 |
| ARB | 3 | 33% | +40.4 | +5.99 |
| FIL | 3 | 0% | -174.7 | -26.20 |
| KAS | 3 | 33% | -40.3 | -6.04 |
| BNB | 3 | 0% | -260.0 | -38.74 |
| CHILLGUY | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| GOAT | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| ZEREBRO | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 2)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 12:10 | SAGA | Buy | circuit_breaker |
| 06-27 12:10 | RENDER | Sell | circuit_breaker |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||