168
closed trades
38%
win rate
-91.80
total pnl ($)
0.523
weight
7d window — n=35 wr=29% pnl=-117.40
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-03 20:04:37 (23.6d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
avz
n: 164
· wr: 33.5%
· total_bps: -1338.9
· mean_bps: -8.16
· sharpe: -0.04
· max_dd_bps: -4470.5
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 07:33 | INJ | Sell | 4.86668→4.98884 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 21:03 | AAVE | Buy | 95.3148→92.9343 | -12.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 13:57 | HYPE | Sell | 62.1495→63.7078 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 07:07 | UNI | Sell | 2.85529→2.92799 | -13.18 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 03:02 | ICP | Sell | 2.17866→2.08132 | +21.89 | take_profit |
| 06-26 03:02 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0731073→0.0711996 | -13.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 01:30 | APT | Buy | 0.596649→0.581663 | -12.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:47 | XRP | Buy | 1.07167→1.04462 | -13.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:42 | APT | Buy | 0.630158→0.614239 | -13.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 10:47 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0753858→0.0734978 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:24 | BTC | Sell | 60281→61765 | -12.77 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 04:57 | ETH | Sell | 1595.24→1634.68 | -12.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 17:16 | SOL | Sell | 69.1596→66.1299 | +21.48 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | BLUR | Sell | 0.0153012→0.0145826 | +23.03 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | ETH | Sell | 1679.03→1605.46 | +21.37 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:47 | BTC | Sell | 62800.9→60041 | +21.26 | take_profit |
| 06-24 13:22 | ARB | Buy | 0.0789697→0.0769722 | -13.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 20:15 | FIL | Buy | 0.756299→0.789303 | +21.37 | take_profit |
| 06-23 10:59 | SUI | Sell | 0.685559→0.702887 | -13.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 10:51 | XLM | Buy | 0.195739→0.190617 | -13.53 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 08:24 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0820985→0.0785076 | +21.39 | take_profit |
| 06-23 06:21 | ADA | Buy | 0.15849→0.154444 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | LINK | Buy | 7.86537→7.66815 | -13.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:20 | AAVE | Buy | 74.2756→72.4017 | -13.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:08 | BTC | Buy | 64701.2→63079.3 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 04:06 | HBAR | Sell | 0.0803749→0.0789867 | +8.19 | timeout |
| 06-22 11:10 | SUI | Sell | 0.708403→0.726144 | -12.70 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 01:26 | ETH | Sell | 1710.03→1752.35 | -12.82 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 00:37 | APT | Sell | 0.651837→0.668401 | -13.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 21:09 | NEAR | Sell | 2.19725→2.10123 | +21.40 | take_profit |
| 06-21 21:07 | RENDER | Sell | 1.74146→1.66562 | +21.33 | take_profit |
| 06-21 16:07 | BCH | Sell | 196.791→199.31 | -6.85 | timeout |
| 06-21 10:17 | LTC | Sell | 44.085→45.1889 | -13.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 22:28 | AAVE | Sell | 74.2684→76.1381 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 12:16 | ACE | Buy | 0.0849212→0.0827379 | -13.30 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 08:04 | LTC | Sell | 44.4449→44.107 | +3.45 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:26 | SOL | Sell | 68.6967→70.4017 | -12.74 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 16:02 | TRX | Sell | 0.32134→0.32111 | -0.09 | timeout |
| 06-19 15:16 | HYPE | Sell | 67.84→69.5391 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:53 | LINK | Buy | 8.0042→7.80214 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:45 | ETH | Sell | 1774.02→1696.07 | +21.51 | take_profit |
| 06-18 15:44 | SOL | Sell | 72.0432→68.8893 | +21.42 | take_profit |
| 06-18 04:19 | ACE | Buy | 0.0837209→0.0814389 | -14.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 01:08 | FIL | Sell | 0.786543→0.806314 | -13.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 19:38 | SUI | Buy | 0.794499→0.774529 | -13.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 18:05 | APT | Buy | 0.688272→0.670996 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 16:28 | BTC | Sell | 64841.8→66438.5 | -12.77 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 12:43 | UNI | Sell | 3.26418→3.34621 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 17:49 | SAGA | Buy | 0.0129932→0.0135666 | +21.61 | take_profit |
| 06-16 14:33 | HYPE | Buy | 75.0888→73.2091 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 14:23 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0887222→0.0864951 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 09:26 | NEAR | Sell | 2.45159→2.51378 | -13.15 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:25 | INJ | Sell | 5.76296→5.91123 | -13.31 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:24 | XLM | Sell | 0.214046→0.219465 | -13.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 02:11 | SOL | Buy | 75.3293→73.4612 | -12.84 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 01:56 | XRP | Buy | 1.25891→1.22728 | -13.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:24 | ETH | Buy | 1840.78→1795.12 | -12.87 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:22 | LINK | Buy | 8.53923→8.32505 | -13.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 20:01 | TRX | Buy | 0.312288→0.31964 | +11.32 | timeout |
| 06-15 13:16 | ETH | Buy | 1728.27→1804.42 | +21.55 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:43 | UNI | Buy | 2.59085→2.70402 | +21.39 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:23 | XRP | Buy | 1.1825→1.23399 | +21.30 | take_profit |
| 06-15 05:30 | LTC | Sell | 44.4069→45.5201 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 00:07 | AAVE | Sell | 66.7793→68.4583 | -13.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 23:04 | LTC | Buy | 43.2788→45.1637 | +21.25 | take_profit |
| 06-14 21:25 | ADA | Sell | 0.167008→0.171208 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 14:30 | NEAR | Buy | 2.12883→2.07544 | -13.13 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 03:43 | XLM | Buy | 0.190007→0.185201 | -13.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 07:47 | DOT | Buy | 0.943656→0.985504 | +21.72 | take_profit |
| 06-13 06:33 | APT | Sell | 0.643639→0.659895 | -13.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 06:10 | OP | Sell | 0.100275→0.102977 | -14.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 04:03 | FIL | Buy | 0.757559→0.75848 | +0.16 | timeout |
| 06-12 15:13 | ADA | Buy | 0.166362→0.173657 | +21.38 | take_profit |
| 06-12 12:06 | LTC | Buy | 42.1115→42.9513 | +9.47 | timeout |
| 06-11 17:03 | NEAR | Buy | 2.02381→1.97272 | -13.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 03:55 | AVAX | Sell | 6.4005→6.57643 | -14.18 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 01:41 | SOL | Sell | 63.2785→64.8521 | -12.87 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 01:16 | XMR | Buy | 326.862→341.125 | +21.37 | take_profit |
| 06-10 16:47 | ADA | Buy | 0.164581→0.16046 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 16:46 | ARB | Buy | 0.0807802→0.0787109 | -13.26 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 15:46 | BTC | Sell | 61003.9→62511.4 | -12.75 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 11:54 | KAS | Buy | 0.031838→0.0309718 | -14.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 00:07 | TRX | Sell | 0.323619→0.323221 | +0.17 | timeout |
| 06-09 18:18 | DOT | Sell | 0.938005→0.962371 | -13.44 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 15:20 | ATOM | Sell | 1.73757→1.78244 | -13.35 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 14:21 | NEAR | Sell | 2.20295→2.10553 | +21.70 | take_profit |
| 06-09 13:23 | BTC | Buy | 63802.2→62228.8 | -12.76 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 08:46 | INJ | Sell | 5.5814→5.72219 | -13.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 07:08 | ONDO | Sell | 0.363849→0.37306 | -13.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 04:35 | APT | Sell | 0.644239→0.660495 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 02:21 | SAGA | Sell | 0.0131867→0.0125731 | +22.81 | take_profit |
| 06-09 00:37 | INJ | Sell | 5.74376→5.48137 | +22.42 | take_profit |
| 06-08 18:06 | BNB | Sell | 594.821→609.737 | -12.93 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 15:19 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0852677→0.0874095 | -12.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 14:55 | XRP | Sell | 1.14451→1.17338 | -13.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 12:42 | SUI | Sell | 0.746553→0.765324 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 06:18 | NEAR | Sell | 2.06138→2.11338 | -13.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 00:36 | KAS | Sell | 0.0305754→0.0313535 | -13.18 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 22:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.65586→6.94616 | +21.21 | take_profit |
| 06-07 22:15 | LTC | Buy | 41.4504→43.2552 | +21.33 | take_profit |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
168
closed
38%
win rate
-91.80
total pnl ($)
-11.0 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
12
closed
33%
win rate
-4.31
total pnl ($)
-79.1 bps
avg bps net
Live WR is 89% of paper WR (33% vs 38%)
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 10 | 70% | +188.8 | +94.29 |
| NEAR | 9 | 33% | -31.3 | -14.29 |
| LTC | 8 | 50% | +7.8 | +2.95 |
| APT | 7 | 14% | -162.6 | -56.54 |
| XRP | 7 | 29% | -55.6 | -20.10 |
| SOL | 7 | 29% | -61.5 | -21.38 |
| BTC | 7 | 29% | -60.2 | -21.13 |
| XLM | 6 | 17% | -148.2 | -44.45 |
| AAVE | 6 | 17% | -145.7 | -43.72 |
| ADA | 6 | 33% | -30.8 | -9.27 |
| SAGA | 5 | 100% | +438.5 | +109.63 |
| RENDER | 5 | 60% | +151.9 | +37.97 |
| SUI | 5 | 20% | -206.5 | -51.16 |
| DOGE | 5 | 40% | -71.1 | -17.03 |
| LINK | 5 | 40% | +14.8 | +3.99 |
| HYPE | 5 | 20% | -121.4 | -30.36 |
| DOT | 5 | 40% | +16.5 | +4.12 |
| INJ | 5 | 20% | -120.2 | -30.03 |
| ATOM | 4 | 25% | -92.8 | -18.45 |
| BLUR | 4 | 75% | +268.8 | +53.76 |
| ACE | 4 | 25% | -105.9 | -21.18 |
| FIL | 4 | 50% | -23.4 | -4.68 |
| UNI | 4 | 50% | +82.7 | +16.55 |
| XMR | 3 | 67% | +197.8 | +29.66 |
| ONDO | 3 | 67% | +197.0 | +29.54 |
| AVAX | 3 | 33% | -38.6 | -5.95 |
| KAS | 3 | 33% | -38.3 | -5.75 |
| TRX | 3 | 67% | +76.0 | +11.39 |
| HBAR | 3 | 33% | -121.9 | -18.28 |
| CHILLGUY | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| BNB | 2 | 50% | +83.6 | +8.35 |
| GOAT | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| OP | 2 | 0% | -273.8 | -27.51 |
| ETC | 2 | 50% | +81.0 | +8.10 |
| BCH | 2 | 0% | -198.0 | -19.80 |
| ICP | 2 | 50% | +88.2 | +8.82 |
| ARB | 2 | 0% | -263.6 | -26.38 |
| ZEREBRO | 1 | 0% | -14.0 | -0.70 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||