200
closed trades
45%
win rate
+201.60
total pnl ($)
0.483
weight
7d window — n=43 wr=37% pnl=-122.03
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-03 19:55:34 (19.5d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
en
n: 182
· wr: 32.4%
· total_bps: -2203.7
· mean_bps: -12.11
· sharpe: -0.06
· max_dd_bps: -4539.8
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-23 08:24 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0821115→0.0784726 | +21.69 | take_profit |
| 06-23 08:09 | LTC | Sell | 45.0277→43.7779 | +13.45 | timeout |
| 06-23 06:21 | ETC | Buy | 7.15819→6.97297 | -13.39 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:21 | LINK | Buy | 7.85596→7.65975 | -13.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:08 | BTC | Buy | 64692.2→63080.3 | -12.93 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 04:08 | ADA | Buy | 0.15844→0.15972 | +3.74 | timeout |
| 06-23 00:51 | XMR | Sell | 319.55→327.736 | -13.26 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 22:38 | DOT | Buy | 0.951898→0.927844 | -13.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 13:46 | ARB | Buy | 0.0831608→0.0867783 | +21.37 | take_profit |
| 06-22 08:06 | UNI | Buy | 3.00775→3.01115 | +0.11 | timeout |
| 06-22 04:06 | HBAR | Sell | 0.0803749→0.0786687 | +10.16 | timeout |
| 06-22 03:46 | HYPE | Sell | 68.2539→65.2653 | +21.44 | take_profit |
| 06-22 01:26 | ETH | Sell | 1710.03→1752.35 | -12.82 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 00:37 | APT | Sell | 0.651437→0.668001 | -13.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 22:39 | NEAR | Sell | 2.19605→2.09972 | +21.48 | take_profit |
| 06-21 16:07 | SUI | Sell | 0.708123→0.712818 | -3.62 | timeout |
| 06-21 10:17 | LTC | Sell | 44.113→45.2409 | -13.38 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 08:04 | RENDER | Sell | 1.74146→1.68762 | +15.01 | timeout |
| 06-21 06:18 | SAGA | Sell | 0.0136466→0.0139905 | -13.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 22:28 | AAVE | Sell | 74.3034→76.1671 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 12:32 | ACE | Buy | 0.0847212→0.0819385 | -16.87 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 12:05 | XRP | Buy | 1.12718→1.14751 | +8.63 | timeout |
| 06-19 20:07 | DOT | Buy | 0.968282→0.953582 | -8.04 | timeout |
| 06-19 13:45 | OP | Buy | 0.100875→0.105294 | +21.45 | take_profit |
| 06-19 08:04 | LTC | Sell | 44.4449→43.4549 | +10.31 | timeout |
| 06-19 04:33 | AAVE | Buy | 73.8885→72.0349 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 03:19 | ACE | Buy | 0.0783196→0.0762428 | -13.71 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 03:15 | AVAX | Buy | 6.36059→6.20105 | -12.93 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 16:02 | TRX | Sell | 0.32124→0.318059 | +4.50 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:53 | LINK | Buy | 8.0042→7.80414 | -12.79 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 15:45 | ETH | Sell | 1773.62→1695.87 | +21.30 | take_profit |
| 06-18 15:44 | SOL | Sell | 72.1552→68.9943 | +21.55 | take_profit |
| 06-18 04:12 | ACE | Buy | 0.083821→0.0816387 | -13.47 | stop_loss |
| 06-18 01:11 | FIL | Sell | 0.786633→0.807105 | -13.46 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 19:38 | SUI | Buy | 0.794499→0.774529 | -13.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 18:05 | APT | Buy | 0.687072→0.669498 | -13.25 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 16:28 | BTC | Sell | 64824.8→66422.5 | -12.78 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 12:11 | UNI | Sell | 3.22669→3.30758 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 17:49 | SAGA | Buy | 0.0129932→0.0135666 | +21.61 | take_profit |
| 06-16 16:03 | TRX | Sell | 0.32095→0.317239 | +5.33 | timeout |
| 06-16 14:33 | HYPE | Buy | 75.0898→73.2141 | -12.94 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 09:28 | NEAR | Sell | 2.45769→2.51929 | -13.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:25 | INJ | Sell | 5.76776→5.91834 | -13.50 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:24 | XLM | Sell | 0.214156→0.219525 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 02:11 | SOL | Buy | 75.3043→73.4342 | -12.86 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 01:55 | XRP | Buy | 1.25961→1.22808 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:24 | ETH | Buy | 1841.38→1795.52 | -12.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:22 | LINK | Buy | 8.53913→8.32505 | -13.02 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 17:33 | APT | Buy | 0.713278→0.695378 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 13:16 | ETH | Buy | 1728.17→1804.02 | +21.46 | take_profit |
| 06-15 13:08 | ETC | Buy | 7.28342→7.605 | +21.63 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:43 | UNI | Buy | 2.59085→2.70402 | +21.39 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:24 | XRP | Buy | 1.1851→1.23679 | +21.34 | take_profit |
| 06-15 04:02 | LTC | Sell | 44.4099→45.3183 | -10.69 | timeout |
| 06-15 00:14 | AAVE | Sell | 66.8393→68.5154 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 21:25 | ADA | Sell | 0.166898→0.171128 | -13.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 18:22 | AVAX | Sell | 6.70382→6.4086 | +21.41 | take_profit |
| 06-14 14:30 | NEAR | Buy | 2.12723→2.07394 | -13.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 12:06 | AAVE | Sell | 66.7793→65.9905 | +5.46 | timeout |
| 06-14 04:08 | LTC | Buy | 43.2788→44.3489 | +11.91 | timeout |
| 06-14 04:07 | BNB | Sell | 600.14→609.452 | -8.42 | timeout |
| 06-14 01:34 | ICP | Sell | 2.56686→2.45241 | +21.84 | take_profit |
| 06-13 20:00 | TRX | Buy | 0.312688→0.317791 | +7.71 | timeout |
| 06-13 06:33 | APT | Sell | 0.644539→0.660995 | -13.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 06:10 | OP | Sell | 0.100445→0.102977 | -13.18 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 04:06 | LINK | Sell | 7.88713→7.87537 | +0.34 | timeout |
| 06-13 04:03 | DOT | Buy | 0.943656→0.966058 | +11.42 | timeout |
| 06-12 15:13 | ADA | Buy | 0.166362→0.173657 | +21.37 | take_profit |
| 06-12 04:03 | FIL | Buy | 0.757559→0.75882 | +0.38 | timeout |
| 06-12 00:30 | XMR | Sell | 385.574→395.296 | -13.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 17:03 | NEAR | Buy | 2.02361→1.97282 | -13.06 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 12:06 | LTC | Buy | 42.1115→42.5754 | +4.93 | timeout |
| 06-11 03:55 | AVAX | Sell | 6.3995→6.55992 | -12.97 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 01:41 | SOL | Sell | 63.2675→64.8391 | -12.86 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 16:47 | ADA | Buy | 0.164841→0.160609 | -13.28 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 16:46 | ARB | Buy | 0.0809202→0.0788109 | -13.48 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 15:46 | BTC | Sell | 61001.9→62504.4 | -12.71 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 11:54 | KAS | Buy | 0.031838→0.0309718 | -14.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-10 04:07 | ETC | Sell | 6.95516→7.02786 | -5.68 | timeout |
| 06-09 19:31 | DOT | Sell | 0.939115→0.963272 | -13.31 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 15:20 | ATOM | Sell | 1.73757→1.78244 | -13.34 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 14:28 | NEAR | Sell | 2.19925→2.10343 | +21.38 | take_profit |
| 06-09 13:26 | BTC | Buy | 63789.2→62220.8 | -12.73 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 08:35 | ONDO | Sell | 0.364459→0.37361 | -13.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 04:35 | APT | Sell | 0.644239→0.660495 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-09 02:21 | SAGA | Sell | 0.0131867→0.0125731 | +22.81 | take_profit |
| 06-09 00:37 | INJ | Sell | 5.73087→5.48067 | +21.41 | take_profit |
| 06-08 18:02 | BNB | Sell | 594.391→609.357 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 16:18 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0853427→0.0874816 | -12.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 15:10 | SUI | Sell | 0.752102→0.771028 | -12.96 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 14:57 | XRP | Sell | 1.14511→1.17408 | -13.09 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 12:07 | TRX | Sell | 0.323619→0.326882 | -5.49 | timeout |
| 06-08 06:19 | NEAR | Sell | 2.06848→2.12119 | -13.21 | stop_loss |
| 06-08 00:36 | KAS | Sell | 0.0305514→0.0313215 | -13.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 22:15 | LTC | Buy | 41.5164→43.3462 | +21.60 | take_profit |
| 06-07 22:14 | AAVE | Buy | 61.6694→64.4039 | +21.72 | take_profit |
| 06-07 22:14 | BNB | Sell | 588.223→603.122 | -13.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 16:12 | XLM | Sell | 0.210347→0.20105 | +21.65 | take_profit |
| 06-07 08:57 | ETH | Buy | 1571.16→1640.14 | +21.49 | take_profit |
| 06-07 08:09 | AVAX | Buy | 6.65586→6.7865 | +9.52 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
200
closed
45%
win rate
+201.60
total pnl ($)
+20.1 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
16
closed
25%
win rate
-23.16
total pnl ($)
-113.3 bps
avg bps net
Live WR is 56% of paper WR (25% vs 45%)
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 11 | 64% | +111.5 | +61.56 |
| NEAR | 11 | 36% | -11.0 | -6.32 |
| ADA | 10 | 30% | -43.3 | -21.26 |
| LTC | 10 | 50% | +15.1 | +6.64 |
| BTC | 9 | 33% | -54.3 | -23.83 |
| LINK | 8 | 50% | +11.4 | +5.00 |
| DOT | 8 | 38% | -37.4 | -14.97 |
| XRP | 7 | 71% | +153.1 | +53.27 |
| APT | 7 | 29% | -65.1 | -22.67 |
| SOL | 7 | 29% | -83.4 | -28.87 |
| SAGA | 7 | 71% | +197.0 | +68.95 |
| AAVE | 7 | 43% | -9.9 | -3.45 |
| DOGE | 6 | 67% | +21.5 | +6.58 |
| SUI | 6 | 50% | +62.9 | +19.16 |
| XMR | 6 | 33% | -32.8 | -9.83 |
| INJ | 5 | 40% | +14.0 | +3.41 |
| BNB | 5 | 20% | -104.1 | -26.10 |
| XLM | 5 | 40% | +15.6 | +3.91 |
| UNI | 5 | 80% | +134.2 | +33.55 |
| ACE | 5 | 20% | -151.4 | -37.84 |
| AVAX | 5 | 40% | -32.1 | -7.97 |
| ARB | 4 | 75% | +253.1 | +50.63 |
| ATOM | 4 | 25% | -86.2 | -17.16 |
| HYPE | 4 | 50% | +85.1 | +17.02 |
| ONDO | 4 | 50% | +82.4 | +16.47 |
| ETC | 4 | 50% | +120.1 | +24.02 |
| TRX | 4 | 75% | +60.2 | +12.05 |
| BLUR | 3 | 67% | +202.4 | +30.36 |
| RENDER | 3 | 100% | +386.7 | +58.00 |
| OP | 3 | 33% | -33.0 | -5.08 |
| FIL | 3 | 33% | -174.0 | -26.10 |
| KAS | 3 | 33% | -34.7 | -5.21 |
| CHILLGUY | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| HBAR | 2 | 50% | -29.2 | -2.92 |
| GOAT | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| ICP | 2 | 50% | +78.0 | +7.80 |
| ZEREBRO | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| BCH | 1 | 0% | -260.0 | -13.00 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 16)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-23 08:20 | SUI | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-23 08:20 | ETH | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-23 08:20 | BTC | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-23 08:20 | SUI | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-23 08:20 | ETH | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-23 08:20 | BTC | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-23 04:28 | DOGE | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-23 04:28 | ETC | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-23 00:27 | XMR | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-23 00:26 | XMR | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-22 16:28 | BTC | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-22 04:23 | DOT | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-22 04:23 | ARB | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-22 04:23 | ADA | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-22 04:17 | LINK | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-22 00:30 | ETH | Sell | stale_intent |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-08 04:05 | ETH | Sell | +8.22 | The market was in a mild downtrend over 24h and 7d, with ETH showing slight short-term recovery but weak relative momentum. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before a favorable move materialized, leaving a small positive PnL from min… |
| 05-02 16:16 | BTC | Buy | +0.77 | # Trade Analysis BTC was consolidating in a tight range near $78,555 with minimal intraday momentum (1h: +0.24%, 24h: +0.28%) while negative funding rates (-0.005%) signaled weakening long leverage, creating conditions where mean-reversion should have favo… |
| 04-29 15:39 | ADA | Buy | -12.58 | # Trade Analysis: top-trader-fade_short_extreme-ADA **Market Context at Close:** ADA was down 1.07% in the past hour and 4.39% over 7 days as part of a broader altcoin selloff (ETH -1.08% 1h, BTC -0.74% 1h), with elevated funding rates (0.0061%) suggesting… |