36
closed trades
44%
win rate
-30.62
total pnl ($)
1.369
weight
7d window — n=4 wr=75% pnl=+26.57
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-19 06:41:41 (38.6d ago) · src: canon
verdict: PASS
· strict: STRICT-PASS
· batch:
by
n: 72
· wr: 61.1%
· total_bps: +3560.9
· mean_bps: +49.46
· sharpe: +0.30
· max_dd_bps: -1020.6
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 36 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 17:55 | BTC | Sell | 60545→59974 | +4.30 | timeout |
| 06-25 13:55 | BTC | Sell | 61131.9→58422.9 | +21.70 | take_profit |
| 06-25 01:43 | BTC | Sell | 60561→60807 | -2.48 | timeout |
| 06-23 18:04 | BTC | Sell | 62796.9→62358.1 | +3.04 | timeout |
| 06-18 20:36 | BTC | Sell | 63973.8→63103.2 | +6.29 | timeout |
| 06-17 06:04 | BTC | Sell | 65610.7→65815.3 | -1.99 | timeout |
| 06-15 16:10 | BTC | Sell | 65684.7→67319 | -12.89 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 22:12 | BTC | Sell | 64470.8→65173.3 | -5.88 | timeout |
| 06-14 02:08 | BTC | Sell | 64025.8→64588.2 | -4.85 | timeout |
| 06-13 06:02 | BTC | Sell | 63606.8→63534.2 | +0.12 | timeout |
| 06-12 09:59 | BTC | Sell | 63588.8→63734.2 | -1.55 | timeout |
| 06-11 13:59 | BTC | Sell | 62683.9→63030.2 | -3.17 | timeout |
| 06-10 17:50 | BTC | Sell | 61673.9→61988.1 | -2.98 | timeout |
| 06-09 10:24 | BTC | Sell | 62906.9→62704.1 | +1.15 | timeout |
| 06-08 14:19 | BTC | Sell | 62891.9→63770.2 | -7.42 | timeout |
| 06-07 18:18 | BTC | Sell | 62300.9→62129.1 | +0.91 | timeout |
| 06-06 22:14 | BTC | Sell | 60992→60614 | +2.62 | timeout |
| 06-05 16:21 | BTC | Sell | 59906→61381.7 | -12.77 | stop_loss |
| 06-05 06:16 | BTC | Sell | 63452.8→61973.1 | +11.18 | timeout |
| 06-04 03:31 | BTC | Sell | 62628.9→64172.3 | -12.77 | stop_loss |
| 05-28 04:08 | BTC | Sell | 74821.3→73151.7 | +10.72 | timeout |
| 05-27 08:07 | BTC | Sell | 75741.2→75891.8 | -1.54 | timeout |
| 05-25 07:47 | BTC | Sell | 76095.2→77299.9 | -8.32 | timeout |
| 05-23 21:00 | BTC | Sell | 75471.2→77325.5 | -12.73 | stop_loss |
| 05-23 06:00 | BTC | Sell | 75810.2→75451.8 | +1.91 | timeout |
| 05-19 13:43 | BTC | Sell | 76796.2→76833.8 | -0.68 | timeout |
| 05-18 17:43 | BTC | Sell | 76914.2→76616.8 | +1.52 | timeout |
| 05-15 22:09 | BTC | Sell | 80425→79009 | +8.33 | timeout |
| 05-12 08:43 | BTC | Sell | 81715.9→81724.1 | -0.48 | timeout |
| 04-29 10:02 | BTC | Sell | 76330→77593 | -8.72 | timeout |
| 04-28 14:02 | BTC | Sell | 76740→75981 | +4.50 | timeout |
| 04-27 18:02 | BTC | Sell | 77582→76746 | +4.94 | timeout |
| 04-26 22:02 | BTC | Sell | 78051→78411 | -2.76 | timeout |
| 04-26 02:01 | BTC | Sell | 77299→77422 | -1.25 | timeout |
| 04-25 06:00 | BTC | Sell | 77577→77474 | +0.21 | timeout |
| 04-23 22:44 | BTC | Sell | 76970→78279 | -8.85 | stop_loss |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
36
closed
44%
win rate
-30.62
total pnl ($)
-17.0 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 36 | 44% | -17.0 | -30.62 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-29 10:02 | BTC | Sell | -8.72 | # Trade Analysis: FDUSD Flow Signal Sell Bitcoin was consolidating near $77,643 with modest positive momentum (+0.83% in the prior hour, +1.31% over 24h), showing no directional conviction despite the 5x leveraged short entry at $76,330. The FDUSDUSDT cros… |
| 04-27 18:02 | BTC | Sell | +4.94 | At close, Bitcoin was treading water near $76.7K with minimal hourly momentum (0.09%) while remaining down 1.70% on the day, and funding rates were modestly positive at 0.55 bps indicating mild long bias. The thesis failed because the FDUSD/USDT cross-rate … |
| 04-26 22:02 | BTC | Sell | -2.76 | # Trade Analysis Bitcoin was consolidating near $78,490 with modest positive momentum across all timeframes (0.25% 1h, 1.24% 24h, 5.09% 7d) and negative funding (-0.001067%) suggesting bearish positioning. The thesis failed because the FDUSD/USDT flow sign… |
| 04-26 02:01 | BTC | Sell | -1.25 | BTC was essentially flat around $77,485, up 2.42% over the week with minimal hourly and daily movement, while funding rates remained neutral at 0.01%. The short thesis failed because BTC rallied 123 bps from entry ($77,299) to exit ($77,422) as the FDUSD/US… |
| 04-25 06:00 | BTC | Sell | +0.21 | Bitcoin was trading in a tight range near $77,542, essentially flat over the preceding hour (-0.02%) despite minor 24-hour weakness (-0.52%). The short thesis failed because the FDUSD/USDT cross that triggered the -16 bps flow signal reversed before reachin… |