127
closed trades
35%
win rate
-93.13
total pnl ($)
1.147
weight
7d window — n=16 wr=31% pnl=-13.11
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-20 04:14:00 (38.4d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
qa
n: 62
· wr: 38.7%
· total_bps: -940.8
· mean_bps: -15.17
· sharpe: -0.18
· max_dd_bps: -1393.3
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 19:40 | SOL | Sell | 72.9401→73.948 | -8.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 14:33 | XRP | Buy | 1.02116→1.04324 | +11.40 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:48 | BTC | Sell | 60885→59546 | +11.60 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:40 | ETH | Buy | 1628.96→1606.64 | -8.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 16:51 | ETH | Sell | 1643.64→1607.76 | +11.49 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:47 | SOL | Buy | 67.7692→66.8265 | -8.15 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 17:36 | BTC | Sell | 62324.9→62628.1 | -3.17 | timeout |
| 06-23 10:18 | BTC | Sell | 62982.9→62417.1 | +4.41 | timeout |
| 06-23 08:15 | SOL | Buy | 69.7575→68.7953 | -8.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 18:31 | XRP | Sell | 1.14471→1.14119 | +1.19 | timeout |
| 06-21 20:51 | SOL | Buy | 74.3261→73.414 | -7.27 | timeout |
| 06-21 15:16 | ETH | Sell | 1728.73→1728.47 | -0.42 | timeout |
| 06-21 15:06 | XRP | Sell | 1.14651→1.14949 | -1.92 | timeout |
| 06-20 20:03 | SOL | Sell | 71.7892→71.9108 | -1.40 | timeout |
| 06-20 19:18 | XRP | Buy | 1.15159→1.14041 | -5.86 | timeout |
| 06-20 18:47 | BTC | Buy | 63843.2→63799.8 | -0.87 | timeout |
| 06-19 11:40 | XRP | Buy | 1.12308→1.12642 | +1.15 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:45 | XRP | Sell | 1.16241→1.13738 | +11.33 | take_profit |
| 06-17 14:47 | ETH | Buy | 1770.88→1746.55 | -8.05 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 17:03 | SOL | Buy | 75.9604→74.9103 | -8.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 15:46 | ETH | Sell | 1812.32→1837.3 | -8.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 12:38 | XRP | Sell | 1.22289→1.24013 | -8.24 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 23:48 | XRP | Sell | 1.16791→1.18439 | -8.26 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 23:27 | SOL | Buy | 69.3334→70.8864 | +11.83 | take_profit |
| 06-14 13:31 | ETH | Buy | 1673.27→1665.63 | -3.01 | timeout |
| 06-14 01:43 | ETH | Sell | 1687.93→1684.77 | +0.55 | timeout |
| 06-13 20:47 | ETH | Sell | 1677.23→1674.97 | +0.24 | timeout |
| 06-13 18:15 | SOL | Buy | 68.3503→68.1938 | -1.73 | timeout |
| 06-13 17:23 | XRP | Buy | 1.15299→1.14571 | -3.95 | timeout |
| 06-12 15:11 | XRP | Buy | 1.12918→1.15351 | +11.35 | take_profit |
| 06-09 00:01 | ETH | Buy | 1682.87→1687.93 | +1.22 | timeout |
| 06-07 22:13 | XRP | Buy | 1.12438→1.14881 | +11.47 | take_profit |
| 06-07 09:47 | XRP | Buy | 1.16319→1.14674 | -8.26 | stop_loss |
| 06-07 08:46 | ETH | Buy | 1599.06→1633.94 | +11.49 | take_profit |
| 06-05 16:15 | ETH | Buy | 1561.46→1595.54 | +11.51 | take_profit |
| 06-04 02:04 | XRP | Sell | 1.17001→1.14479 | +11.36 | take_profit |
| 06-02 23:33 | BTC | Buy | 66689.3→66434.7 | -2.60 | timeout |
| 06-02 02:06 | SOL | Buy | 80.7381→79.6232 | -8.08 | stop_loss |
| 06-02 01:50 | ETH | Sell | 1996.8→1984 | +3.04 | timeout |
| 06-01 17:37 | XRP | Sell | 1.29538→1.30303 | -3.73 | timeout |
| 06-01 12:51 | SOL | Buy | 80.8341→80.8999 | -0.07 | timeout |
| 06-01 11:49 | XRP | Sell | 1.30437→1.30353 | -0.14 | timeout |
| 06-01 01:34 | BTC | Buy | 73608.7→73585.3 | -0.68 | timeout |
| 05-31 15:38 | BTC | Buy | 73924.7→73689.3 | -2.26 | timeout |
| 05-31 15:19 | XRP | Sell | 1.33727→1.33163 | +1.80 | timeout |
| 05-31 05:07 | SOL | Sell | 82.9516→83.1135 | -1.55 | timeout |
| 05-30 19:20 | ETH | Sell | 2029.2→2026.8 | +0.18 | timeout |
| 05-30 18:49 | XRP | Sell | 1.34136→1.35124 | -4.54 | timeout |
| 05-29 19:41 | BTC | Sell | 74104.3→73685.7 | +2.62 | timeout |
| 05-29 13:11 | BTC | Buy | 73802.7→73132.3 | -5.50 | timeout |
| 05-28 22:49 | SOL | Sell | 82.7546→82.0623 | +4.12 | timeout |
| 05-28 07:43 | BTC | Sell | 73352.3→73440.7 | -1.15 | timeout |
| 05-28 07:35 | ETH | Sell | 1967.3→1994.3 | -8.07 | stop_loss |
| 05-28 02:05 | SOL | Buy | 82.9004→82.1717 | -5.32 | timeout |
| 05-28 01:45 | BTC | Sell | 74483.3→74224.7 | +1.42 | timeout |
| 05-28 01:41 | ETH | Sell | 2039.8→2014.6 | +6.28 | timeout |
| 05-27 21:15 | SOL | Sell | 83.3085→83.6355 | -2.63 | timeout |
| 05-27 17:47 | BTC | Sell | 74875.3→74897.7 | -0.65 | timeout |
| 05-27 17:09 | ETH | Buy | 2074.01→2060.39 | -4.13 | timeout |
| 05-27 13:28 | XRP | Sell | 1.32737→1.32573 | +0.19 | timeout |
| 05-27 09:03 | SOL | Sell | 83.6315→83.7316 | -1.13 | timeout |
| 05-27 08:44 | BTC | Buy | 75283.8→75911.2 | +4.12 | timeout |
| 05-27 08:31 | XRP | Sell | 1.32157→1.33573 | -6.39 | timeout |
| 05-26 15:27 | XRP | Buy | 1.35124→1.34816 | -1.77 | timeout |
| 05-26 14:28 | ETH | Sell | 2117.79→2139.71 | -6.17 | timeout |
| 05-26 14:23 | BTC | Sell | 76724.2→77765.7 | -7.96 | stop_loss |
| 05-26 11:33 | BTC | Buy | 76574.8→77260.1 | +4.42 | timeout |
| 05-26 07:29 | BTC | Buy | 76467.8→76637.2 | +0.72 | timeout |
| 05-26 07:06 | XRP | Sell | 1.33597→1.34644 | -4.82 | timeout |
| 05-26 05:41 | SOL | Buy | 83.8456→84.7133 | +5.24 | timeout |
| 05-26 05:13 | ETH | Sell | 2098.99→2095.21 | +0.48 | timeout |
| 05-26 01:13 | ETH | Buy | 2110.51→2098.69 | -3.55 | timeout |
| 05-26 00:52 | XRP | Buy | 1.35494→1.3361 | -8.15 | stop_loss |
| 05-25 12:35 | XRP | Buy | 1.36414→1.35766 | -3.13 | timeout |
| 05-25 08:10 | XRP | Sell | 1.34666→1.36024 | -6.04 | timeout |
| 05-25 01:40 | ETH | Buy | 2069.71→2101.29 | +7.88 | timeout |
| 05-24 23:24 | XRP | Sell | 1.34756→1.34864 | -0.95 | timeout |
| 05-24 22:10 | SOL | Sell | 83.9304→85.0773 | -8.01 | stop_loss |
| 05-24 20:18 | SOL | Buy | 85.8159→84.9483 | -6.06 | timeout |
| 05-24 18:13 | ETH | Sell | 2095.49→2102.71 | -2.37 | timeout |
| 05-24 14:16 | SOL | Sell | 86.702→84.7987 | +11.59 | take_profit |
| 05-24 14:16 | BTC | Buy | 77125.9→76046.2 | -8.20 | stop_loss |
| 05-24 13:06 | XRP | Buy | 1.36144→1.36136 | -0.53 | timeout |
| 05-24 10:39 | BTC | Sell | 76719.2→77134.9 | -3.45 | timeout |
| 05-24 00:39 | BTC | Sell | 76738.2→76762.8 | -0.65 | timeout |
| 05-23 20:41 | XRP | Sell | 1.34716→1.36572 | -8.07 | stop_loss |
| 05-23 20:41 | ETH | Buy | 2080.61→2126.29 | +11.58 | take_profit |
| 05-23 17:15 | ETH | Buy | 2040.1→2061.69 | +5.30 | timeout |
| 05-23 11:50 | BTC | Sell | 74457.3→74762.7 | -2.75 | timeout |
| 05-23 07:50 | ETH | Sell | 2054.99→2009.8 | +11.60 | take_profit |
| 05-22 23:51 | SOL | Buy | 84.5737→84.2634 | -2.53 | timeout |
| 05-22 23:42 | ETH | Buy | 2061.81→2073.09 | +2.50 | timeout |
| 05-22 22:46 | XRP | Buy | 1.33863→1.33797 | -0.78 | timeout |
| 05-22 17:42 | BTC | Sell | 77217.1→76965.8 | +1.32 | timeout |
| 05-22 14:35 | XRP | Buy | 1.36004→1.35486 | -2.59 | timeout |
| 05-22 13:43 | SOL | Sell | 87.2759→87.1681 | +0.21 | timeout |
| 05-22 12:34 | ETH | Sell | 2128.49→2130.81 | -1.07 | timeout |
| 05-22 04:00 | SOL | Buy | 87.3621→87.0209 | -2.67 | timeout |
| 05-21 22:52 | BTC | Buy | 77558.9→77569.1 | -0.44 | timeout |
| 05-21 21:24 | XRP | Buy | 1.37884→1.37726 | -1.15 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
127
closed
35%
win rate
-93.13
total pnl ($)
-13.4 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 36 | 36% | -6.7 | -13.27 |
| ETH | 35 | 46% | -4.8 | -9.26 |
| BTC | 30 | 30% | -17.2 | -28.24 |
| SOL | 26 | 23% | -29.7 | -42.36 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-08 22:18 | ETH | Buy | +0.46 | The market was in a mild short-term uptrend with ETH up 0.48% on the hour, but the broader 24h and 7d trends remained negative. The thesis failed because the trade was closed due to a timeout, indicating the expected move did not materialize within the allo… |
| 05-02 21:38 | ETH | Sell | -7.98 | # Trade Analysis: ETH Basis Fade (Stop Loss Hit) Ethereum was consolidating with modest intraday gains (+0.61% 1h, +1.32% 24h) while funding rates remained compressed at 0.016% annually, indicating balanced long/short positioning without exuberance. The tr… |