basis_fade_top_trader_contra

not live
26
closed trades
46%
win rate
+30.58
total pnl ($)
1.259
weight
7d window — n=5 wr=80% pnl=+17.03  ·  venues=(unknown)  ·  horizon=  ·  SL=  ·  TP=  ·  class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-19 01:21:19 (34.2d ago) · src: canon
verdict: PASS  ·  strict: STRICT-PASS  ·  batch: nr
n: 14  ·  wr: 57.1%  ·  total_bps: +375.6  ·  mean_bps: +26.83  ·  sharpe: +0.19  ·  max_dd_bps: -290.5
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 26 closed)


Last 100 trades

timesymsideentry→exitpnlclose
06-21 08:47BTCSell63845.8→63924.2-0.96timeout
06-19 19:23BTCSell63054.8→62989.1+0.09timeout
06-18 12:02BTCSell65617.7→63993.2+11.98timeout
06-17 07:29BTCSell65997.7→65524.3+3.16timeout
06-16 11:25BTCSell66832.7→66409.3+2.77timeout
06-14 21:50BTCSell64047.8→65627.1-12.77stop_loss
06-12 12:37BTCSell63487.8→63485.2-0.37timeout
06-10 05:08BTCSell62633.9→62023.1+4.38timeout
06-08 20:39BTCSell63075.8→63296.2-2.16timeout
06-05 21:03BTCSell60391→61878-12.76stop_loss
06-04 20:40BTCSell63265.8→63579.2-2.92timeout
06-02 14:27BTCSell70932.5→67803.4+21.63take_profit
05-30 01:50BTCSell73365.3→73603.7-2.04timeout
05-28 06:16BTCSell75562.2→72972.6+16.70timeout
05-27 09:39BTCSell76404.2→75937.8+2.51timeout
05-26 11:23BTCSell77585.1→77210.9+1.97timeout
05-25 05:25BTCSell77274.1→77360.9-0.95timeout
05-23 05:26BTCSell77245.1→75477.8+10.98timeout
05-22 08:48BTCSell76874.2→77306.9-3.16timeout
05-15 13:51BTCBuy80720→78738.7-12.72stop_loss
05-12 16:43BTCBuy81724.1→81715.9-0.53timeout
05-06 13:18BTCBuy79950→82098.9+12.90timeout
05-03 16:16BTCBuy78709.9→78581.1-1.27timeout
05-02 08:16BTCBuy78670.9→78211.1-3.38timeout
04-30 15:16BTCSell75792→76331.8-4.06timeout
04-26 06:11BTCBuy77653→77969+1.58timeout

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)
26
closed
46%
win rate
+30.58
total pnl ($)
+23.3 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
win rate
total pnl ($)
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbolnwrnet bpstotal pnl ($)
BTC2646%+23.3+30.58

Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)

timesymsidereason
no bounces recorded

Postmortem feed (last 10)

timesymsidepnlnarrative
05-06 13:18BTCBuy+12.90The market was in a broad downtrend across BTC and ETH, with BTC declining 1% in the hour and nearly 2% in the day. The thesis failed because the trade was closed by timeout before the expected reversal materialized, as the persistent bearish momentum preve…
05-02 08:16BTCBuy-3.38# Trade Analysis: tick-1777644943 Bitcoin consolidated sideways in the hour before close (1h = -0.08%), failing to sustain the intraday rally that had driven a +1.13% 24h gain, while funding remained tepidly positive at 0.0036%. The basis fade thesis coll…
04-30 15:16BTCSell-4.06The market was essentially flat to slightly positive at close (BTC at $76,390, +0.22% 1h), with funding rates slightly negative (-0.0047%) indicating mild shorts were being squeezed out of positions. The trade's basis fade thesis failed because the elevated…
04-26 06:11BTCBuy+1.58BTC was stuck in a tight consolidation at $77,957 with minimal intraday momentum (-0.16% in 1h) while funding rates remained extremely low at 0.004%, suggesting neither bulls nor bears had conviction. The trade's thesis partially worked—the basis compressio…