207
closed trades
45%
win rate
+416.73
total pnl ($)
1.088
weight
7d window — n=49 wr=35% pnl=-22.37
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-06-03 20:05:27 (23.5d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
axg
n: 325
· wr: 42.5%
· total_bps: -2641.3
· mean_bps: -8.13
· sharpe: -0.04
· max_dd_bps: -4595.2
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 04:02 | TRX | Buy | 0.322861→0.32042 | -4.23 | timeout |
| 06-26 13:57 | HYPE | Sell | 62.1055→63.6617 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 12:40 | NEAR | Buy | 1.82366→1.77807 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 10:40 | ATOM | Buy | 1.63801→1.5967 | -13.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 08:02 | TRX | Buy | 0.325661→0.322289 | -5.63 | timeout |
| 06-26 02:13 | XRP | Buy | 1.04336→1.01684 | -13.16 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 02:09 | APT | Buy | 0.596249→0.581264 | -12.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-26 02:08 | DOT | Buy | 0.843751→0.822593 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 23:27 | SOL | Sell | 66.2971→67.9451 | -12.86 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 22:02 | OP | Sell | 0.103224→0.105889 | -13.32 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 17:59 | HYPE | Sell | 61.7636→63.3155 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:58 | NEAR | Sell | 1.90562→1.82266 | +21.32 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:53 | UNI | Sell | 2.92647→2.7979 | +21.52 | take_profit |
| 06-25 13:51 | HBAR | Buy | 0.0734444→0.0715913 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 13:44 | SUI | Buy | 0.698745→0.681249 | -12.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 11:10 | INJ | Buy | 4.27407→4.16687 | -13.00 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:09 | BTC | Sell | 60262→61745.9 | -12.77 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:09 | SOL | Sell | 67.3229→68.9938 | -12.89 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 05:07 | SUI | Sell | 0.674431→0.691518 | -13.23 | stop_loss |
| 06-25 04:56 | ETH | Sell | 1592.24→1631.68 | -12.82 | stop_loss |
| 06-24 17:48 | XRP | Sell | 1.09363→1.04596 | +21.28 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | LINK | Sell | 7.64309→7.31013 | +21.33 | take_profit |
| 06-24 16:51 | SOL | Sell | 69.8335→66.683 | +22.13 | take_profit |
| 06-24 15:41 | XRP | Sell | 1.11012→1.06167 | +21.32 | take_profit |
| 06-24 13:48 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0802029→0.0767082 | +21.25 | take_profit |
| 06-24 10:15 | ADA | Sell | 0.152872→0.146207 | +21.13 | take_profit |
| 06-23 20:14 | FIL | Sell | 0.766318→0.785569 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 08:17 | ETH | Sell | 1726.13→1646.86 | +22.44 | take_profit |
| 06-23 06:21 | LINK | Buy | 7.85946→7.66315 | -12.99 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:14 | SUI | Sell | 0.729238→0.697204 | +21.50 | take_profit |
| 06-23 06:08 | NEAR | Buy | 2.06272→2.01019 | -13.19 | stop_loss |
| 06-23 06:08 | ARB | Sell | 0.0847288→0.0810403 | +21.19 | take_profit |
| 06-23 00:34 | XMR | Sell | 318.93→327.065 | -13.20 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 22:28 | SOL | Buy | 73.214→71.3956 | -12.59 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 22:27 | ETH | Buy | 1766.48→1722.87 | -12.78 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 21:39 | KAS | Buy | 0.0301395→0.029346 | -13.61 | stop_loss |
| 06-22 16:01 | XRP | Sell | 1.14851→1.13858 | +3.73 | timeout |
| 06-22 11:10 | SUI | Buy | 0.698225→0.728628 | +21.28 | take_profit |
| 06-22 04:06 | BTC | Buy | 63999.2→63895.8 | -1.33 | timeout |
| 06-22 01:26 | SOL | Buy | 71.6848→74.8288 | +21.42 | take_profit |
| 06-22 01:26 | ETH | Sell | 1712.03→1754.35 | -12.80 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 20:48 | NEAR | Sell | 2.23424→2.13693 | +21.31 | take_profit |
| 06-21 10:17 | LTC | Sell | 44.085→45.1889 | -13.10 | stop_loss |
| 06-21 08:06 | ARB | Sell | 0.0832592→0.0835209 | -1.80 | timeout |
| 06-21 01:14 | ACE | Buy | 0.0913228→0.0955761 | +22.84 | take_profit |
| 06-20 22:34 | AAVE | Buy | 73.3463→76.5479 | +21.37 | take_profit |
| 06-20 14:07 | ARB | Buy | 0.084101→0.0819885 | -13.01 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 14:05 | NEAR | Buy | 2.16854→2.11431 | -12.75 | stop_loss |
| 06-20 08:06 | BNB | Sell | 579.415→586.827 | -6.62 | timeout |
| 06-20 04:20 | ADA | Sell | 0.16094→0.162631 | -5.64 | timeout |
| 06-19 20:06 | BNB | Sell | 589.003→579.645 | +7.17 | timeout |
| 06-19 19:27 | FIL | Buy | 0.80139→0.781224 | -13.03 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 12:47 | DOT | Buy | 0.969222→0.944311 | -13.30 | stop_loss |
| 06-19 12:06 | LTC | Sell | 44.9308→43.5479 | +14.79 | timeout |
| 06-18 15:45 | ETH | Sell | 1773.12→1695.17 | +21.41 | take_profit |
| 06-18 15:44 | FIL | Sell | 0.797651→0.76198 | +21.91 | take_profit |
| 06-18 15:18 | AVAX | Sell | 6.74001→6.43711 | +21.70 | take_profit |
| 06-18 04:01 | DOT | Sell | 1.02284→0.978325 | +21.31 | take_profit |
| 06-17 19:42 | NEAR | Buy | 2.29387→2.23632 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 19:39 | ICP | Buy | 2.4113→2.35024 | -13.11 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 16:28 | BTC | Sell | 64832.8→66437.5 | -12.82 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 12:34 | INJ | Sell | 5.615→5.36784 | +21.67 | take_profit |
| 06-17 08:49 | DOGE | Buy | 0.087942→0.0857427 | -12.98 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 08:07 | BTC | Buy | 66556.3→65447.7 | -8.80 | timeout |
| 06-17 01:49 | SUI | Sell | 0.793462→0.81342 | -12.87 | stop_loss |
| 06-17 01:46 | UNI | Buy | 3.32053→3.46513 | +21.32 | take_profit |
| 06-16 21:16 | BCH | Sell | 217.706→223.227 | -13.13 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 14:23 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0886642→0.0864491 | -12.92 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:45 | AVAX | Sell | 6.82309→6.99584 | -13.12 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 08:13 | ONDO | Sell | 0.369868→0.379184 | -13.04 | stop_loss |
| 06-16 02:27 | SOL | Buy | 75.0323→73.1724 | -12.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 22:24 | ETH | Buy | 1841.48→1795.92 | -12.84 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 19:19 | DOT | Buy | 1.04366→1.01704 | -13.21 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 17:33 | APT | Buy | 0.713678→0.695678 | -13.07 | stop_loss |
| 06-15 15:41 | SOL | Buy | 71.4417→74.5668 | +21.50 | take_profit |
| 06-15 13:16 | ETH | Buy | 1727.17→1802.82 | +21.41 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:42 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0863836→0.0901635 | +21.30 | take_profit |
| 06-15 12:24 | XRP | Buy | 1.1846→1.23619 | +21.31 | take_profit |
| 06-15 04:08 | BTC | Buy | 64044.2→65733.7 | +12.70 | timeout |
| 06-14 23:27 | SUI | Buy | 0.75986→0.793622 | +21.69 | take_profit |
| 06-14 21:50 | ARB | Buy | 0.0824106→0.0860385 | +21.55 | take_profit |
| 06-14 21:17 | NEAR | Sell | 2.08728→2.1396 | -12.95 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 18:22 | AVAX | Sell | 6.70382→6.407 | +21.53 | take_profit |
| 06-14 16:06 | BNB | Sell | 600.33→608.042 | -7.10 | timeout |
| 06-14 12:36 | ADA | Buy | 0.173073→0.168703 | -12.85 | stop_loss |
| 06-14 08:06 | DOGE | Sell | 0.0874621→0.0870628 | +2.06 | timeout |
| 06-14 04:07 | KAS | Buy | 0.0312728→0.0315101 | +3.34 | timeout |
| 06-13 14:18 | XRP | Sell | 1.12912→1.15747 | -12.87 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 07:48 | DOT | Sell | 0.962849→0.9879 | -13.46 | stop_loss |
| 06-13 00:13 | SAGA | Sell | 0.0126868→0.0130198 | -13.57 | stop_loss |
| 06-12 16:06 | BTC | Buy | 62567.1→63746.8 | +8.91 | timeout |
| 06-12 16:05 | LTC | Sell | 42.6983→42.8697 | -2.60 | timeout |
| 06-12 14:55 | SOL | Buy | 65.0878→67.9408 | +21.33 | take_profit |
| 06-12 14:20 | DOGE | Buy | 0.0848212→0.0885219 | +21.17 | take_profit |
| 06-12 11:12 | BLUR | Buy | 0.0177244→0.0184954 | +21.30 | take_profit |
| 06-11 10:55 | BTC | Sell | 61673.9→63201.7 | -12.67 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 05:21 | NEAR | Buy | 1.983→2.06978 | +21.40 | take_profit |
| 06-11 03:56 | ONDO | Buy | 0.333403→0.348003 | +21.44 | take_profit |
| 06-11 03:55 | LINK | Sell | 7.57221→7.78684 | -14.64 | stop_loss |
| 06-11 01:42 | SOL | Sell | 63.4955→65.0833 | -12.94 | stop_loss |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
207
closed
45%
win rate
+416.73
total pnl ($)
+40.2 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
5
closed
0%
win rate
-32.77
total pnl ($)
-272.7 bps
avg bps net
Live WR is 0% of paper WR (0% vs 45%)
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL | 16 | 44% | -0.9 | -0.40 |
| XRP | 14 | 57% | +81.5 | +57.68 |
| SUI | 12 | 42% | +26.5 | +15.86 |
| NEAR | 11 | 45% | +52.4 | +28.95 |
| ETH | 11 | 55% | +89.2 | +49.00 |
| BTC | 11 | 36% | -30.4 | -16.42 |
| LINK | 10 | 60% | +158.0 | +79.03 |
| DOGE | 9 | 67% | +154.9 | +69.83 |
| DOT | 9 | 22% | -82.2 | -36.97 |
| AVAX | 8 | 50% | +39.3 | +15.23 |
| ADA | 8 | 50% | +49.9 | +20.19 |
| LTC | 7 | 14% | -151.7 | -53.41 |
| ONDO | 6 | 67% | +198.3 | +59.49 |
| ACE | 5 | 40% | +7.1 | +1.78 |
| BNB | 5 | 40% | +8.9 | +1.92 |
| ARB | 5 | 40% | +59.4 | +14.92 |
| APT | 4 | 25% | -87.8 | -17.52 |
| ATOM | 4 | 50% | +78.9 | +15.68 |
| UNI | 4 | 100% | +290.6 | +58.12 |
| BLUR | 4 | 75% | +259.0 | +51.80 |
| ICP | 4 | 75% | +259.3 | +51.87 |
| KAS | 4 | 50% | -9.0 | -1.81 |
| HYPE | 4 | 25% | -88.6 | -17.72 |
| TRX | 4 | 50% | +34.5 | +6.91 |
| FIL | 4 | 50% | -16.1 | -3.22 |
| RENDER | 2 | 100% | +427.0 | +42.70 |
| GOAT | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| CHILLGUY | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| OP | 2 | 0% | -270.0 | -26.95 |
| ZEREBRO | 2 | 0% | -14.0 | -1.40 |
| BCH | 2 | 0% | -263.6 | -26.36 |
| AAVE | 2 | 50% | +84.3 | +8.43 |
| XMR | 2 | 0% | -261.7 | -26.17 |
| SAGA | 2 | 50% | +88.9 | +8.89 |
| HBAR | 2 | 0% | -261.0 | -26.10 |
| INJ | 2 | 50% | +85.7 | +8.68 |
| ETC | 1 | 0% | -291.3 | -14.56 |
| XLM | 1 | 100% | +431.9 | +21.60 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 19)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 16:25 | ETH | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-26 16:18 | LINK | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-26 12:24 | HYPE | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-26 12:24 | TRX | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-26 12:24 | TRX | Buy | stale_intent |
| 06-26 00:14 | DOT | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-26 00:14 | XRP | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 12:16 | HBAR | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 12:16 | UNI | Sell | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-25 12:16 | NEAR | Sell | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-25 08:14 | INJ | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-25 08:14 | SUI | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-24 20:19 | SOL | Sell | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-24 20:18 | SOL | Sell | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-24 20:13 | TRX | Buy | below_min_notional_skip |
| 06-24 20:12 | ETH | Sell | trigger_already_opened |
| 06-24 16:23 | SUI | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-24 16:23 | BTC | Sell | stale_intent |
| 06-24 12:21 | XRP | Sell | stale_intent |
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no postmortems | ||||