arb_top_trader_contrarian_loose_z · strategy

213

closed trades

35%

win rate

-254.25

total pnl ($)

0.361

weight

7d window — n=46 wr=30% pnl=-136.79 · venues=(unknown) · horizon=— · SL=— · TP=— · class=? in ?

Backtest evidence run: 2026-05-21 10:04:46 (37.6d ago) · src: canon

verdict: REJECT · strict: STRICT-FAIL · batch: asd

n: 112 · wr: 38.4% · total_bps: -2172.1 · mean_bps: -19.39 · sharpe: -0.10 · max_dd_bps: -4018.7

gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—

Cumulative P&L (last 100 closed)

Last 100 trades

time	sym	side	entry→exit	pnl	close
06-27 22:16	DOT	Buy	0.830328→0.809483	-13.00	stop_loss
06-27 16:06	BNB	Buy	562.601→564.829	+1.42	timeout
06-27 15:34	UNI	Sell	2.94046→3.01406	-12.96	stop_loss
06-27 04:04	TRX	Buy	0.322851→0.32039	-4.26	timeout
06-26 13:57	HYPE	Sell	62.1495→63.7078	-12.99	stop_loss
06-26 12:40	NEAR	Buy	1.82126→1.77577	-12.97	stop_loss
06-26 10:51	APT	Buy	0.60045→0.585261	-13.10	stop_loss
06-26 10:40	ATOM	Buy	1.63901→1.5967	-13.40	stop_loss
06-26 08:02	TRX	Buy	0.325801→0.322309	-5.81	timeout
06-26 02:12	XRP	Buy	1.04506→1.01864	-13.09	stop_loss
06-26 02:08	DOT	Buy	0.844241→0.823022	-13.02	stop_loss
06-26 01:30	APT	Buy	0.596649→0.581663	-12.92	stop_loss
06-25 23:27	SOL	Sell	66.2951→67.9952	-13.26	stop_loss
06-25 22:02	OP	Sell	0.103224→0.105889	-13.32	stop_loss
06-25 17:59	HYPE	Sell	61.7626→63.3085	-12.96	stop_loss
06-25 13:58	NEAR	Sell	1.90612→1.82266	+21.44	take_profit
06-25 13:53	UNI	Sell	2.92757→2.7974	+21.78	take_profit
06-25 13:46	DOGE	Buy	0.076173→0.0742543	-13.00	stop_loss
06-25 13:43	SUI	Buy	0.699775→0.682228	-12.97	stop_loss
06-25 11:10	INJ	Buy	4.28017→4.16937	-13.39	stop_loss
06-25 05:24	BTC	Sell	60281→61765	-12.77	stop_loss
06-25 05:09	SOL	Sell	67.3109→68.9838	-12.92	stop_loss
06-25 04:57	ETH	Sell	1595.24→1634.68	-12.80	stop_loss
06-24 22:01	SUI	Sell	0.673822→0.690758	-13.07	stop_loss
06-24 17:48	INJ	Sell	4.30872→4.12103	+21.32	take_profit
06-24 16:51	LINK	Sell	7.63999→7.30293	+21.61	take_profit
06-24 16:51	SOL	Sell	69.8205→66.68	+22.07	take_profit
06-24 15:45	XRP	Sell	1.10832→1.05976	+21.39	take_profit
06-24 15:31	DOGE	Sell	0.0797381→0.0762661	+21.19	take_profit
06-24 10:15	ADA	Sell	0.152882→0.146207	+21.17	take_profit
06-23 20:15	FIL	Sell	0.768288→0.78769	-13.08	stop_loss
06-23 08:17	ETH	Sell	1723.83→1646.86	+21.80	take_profit
06-23 06:21	ADA	Buy	0.15849→0.154444	-13.07	stop_loss
06-23 06:21	LINK	Buy	7.86537→7.66815	-13.06	stop_loss
06-23 06:18	AAVE	Buy	74.3686→72.5106	-12.94	stop_loss
06-23 06:14	SUI	Sell	0.729238→0.697334	+21.42	take_profit
06-23 00:51	XMR	Sell	319.55→327.736	-13.26	stop_loss
06-22 22:28	SOL	Buy	73.211→71.3736	-12.77	stop_loss
06-22 20:06	UNI	Buy	3.00775→3.02594	+2.57	timeout
06-22 04:07	BTC	Buy	64005.2→63907.8	-1.29	timeout
06-22 01:26	ETH	Sell	1710.03→1752.35	-12.82	stop_loss
06-22 00:06	BNB	Sell	586.353→585.026	+0.53	timeout
06-21 20:50	NEAR	Sell	2.23414→2.13503	+21.71	take_profit
06-21 10:24	FIL	Sell	0.783404→0.803412	-13.22	stop_loss
06-21 10:17	LTC	Sell	44.085→45.1889	-13.11	stop_loss
06-21 08:05	HBAR	Sell	0.080154→0.0803391	-1.60	timeout
06-20 14:05	ARB	Buy	0.0843611→0.0822383	-13.03	stop_loss
06-20 04:06	XRP	Sell	1.14421→1.13968	+1.44	timeout
06-20 04:06	ETH	Sell	1687.53→1708.37	-6.57	timeout
06-20 04:06	BTC	Sell	62626.9→63421.2	-6.82	timeout
06-20 04:06	SOL	Sell	68.7767→69.9695	-9.00	timeout
06-19 20:04	BNB	Sell	588.743→579.925	+6.71	timeout
06-18 15:53	LINK	Buy	8.0042→7.80214	-13.01	stop_loss
06-18 15:37	DOT	Sell	0.99891→0.954699	+21.68	take_profit
06-18 15:36	ADA	Buy	0.165851→0.161679	-13.01	stop_loss
06-18 15:18	AVAX	Sell	6.73971→6.44561	+21.31	take_profit
06-18 05:01	SUI	Sell	0.776116→0.742256	+21.38	take_profit
06-18 04:11	BNB	Buy	606.031→590.767	-13.04	stop_loss
06-18 03:57	DOT	Sell	1.02624→0.981485	+21.36	take_profit
06-17 19:42	NEAR	Buy	2.29387→2.23632	-13.04	stop_loss
06-17 19:39	ICP	Buy	2.4122→2.35024	-13.29	stop_loss
06-17 16:28	BTC	Sell	64841.8→66438.5	-12.77	stop_loss
06-17 08:49	DOGE	Buy	0.087942→0.0857337	-13.12	stop_loss
06-17 08:08	BTC	Buy	66548.3→65398.7	-9.03	timeout
06-17 01:49	SUI	Sell	0.794341→0.81422	-12.80	stop_loss
06-17 01:46	DOT	Sell	1.00115→1.02637	-13.05	stop_loss
06-17 01:46	UNI	Buy	3.32203→3.46893	+21.66	take_profit
06-16 21:16	BCH	Sell	217.706→223.227	-13.13	stop_loss
06-16 14:23	DOGE	Buy	0.0887222→0.0864951	-12.97	stop_loss
06-16 08:45	AVAX	Sell	6.82509→6.99684	-13.04	stop_loss
06-16 08:14	ONDO	Sell	0.370267→0.379565	-13.00	stop_loss
06-16 02:18	SOL	Buy	75.1213→73.2524	-12.88	stop_loss
06-15 22:24	ETH	Buy	1840.78→1795.12	-12.87	stop_loss
06-15 18:31	APT	Buy	0.712578→0.694579	-13.09	stop_loss
06-15 16:24	XRP	Buy	1.22971→1.28328	+21.35	take_profit
06-15 15:38	SOL	Buy	71.3207→74.4438	+21.42	take_profit
06-15 13:16	ETH	Buy	1728.27→1804.42	+21.55	take_profit
06-15 12:42	DOGE	Buy	0.0863286→0.0900825	+21.16	take_profit
06-15 11:20	AVAX	Sell	6.75471→6.92419	-12.95	stop_loss
06-15 05:27	APT	Sell	0.670632→0.687615	-12.90	stop_loss
06-15 04:08	BTC	Buy	64032.2→65734.7	+12.80	timeout
06-15 00:06	ETH	Buy	1677.37→1725.23	+13.70	timeout
06-14 21:50	BCH	Sell	203.349→208.516	-13.16	stop_loss
06-14 12:36	ADA	Buy	0.173063→0.168703	-12.81	stop_loss
06-14 08:02	LTC	Buy	42.9807→43.993	+11.59	timeout
06-13 20:08	BNB	Sell	602.379→607.722	-4.92	timeout
06-13 15:37	XRP	Sell	1.13012→1.15847	-12.85	stop_loss
06-13 08:05	XRP	Buy	1.14129→1.14041	-1.06	timeout
06-13 06:47	AAVE	Sell	64.17→65.8063	-13.20	stop_loss
06-12 22:25	SAGA	Sell	0.0126168→0.0129397	-13.24	stop_loss
06-12 16:09	BTC	Buy	62573.1→63731.8	+8.68	timeout
06-12 15:02	ADA	Buy	0.166272→0.173527	+21.27	take_profit
06-12 11:12	BLUR	Buy	0.0177214→0.0184954	+21.39	take_profit
06-12 06:33	APT	Buy	0.651863→0.635523	-13.01	stop_loss
06-11 18:00	ARB	Buy	0.0803101→0.083949	+22.12	take_profit
06-11 18:00	SAGA	Sell	0.0122569→0.0125994	-14.42	stop_loss
06-11 11:30	ETH	Sell	1625.54→1665.8	-12.78	stop_loss
06-11 10:55	BTC	Sell	61674.9→63197.7	-12.64	stop_loss
06-11 03:55	SUI	Sell	0.731237→0.750362	-13.48	stop_loss
06-11 03:55	LINK	Sell	7.56651→7.77793	-14.43	stop_loss

Paper vs Live

Paper (trades.jsonl)

213

closed

35%

win rate

-254.25

total pnl ($)

-23.9 bps

avg bps net

Live (dry_run=0)

closed

—

win rate

—

total pnl ($)

—

avg bps net

Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample

Per-symbol breakdown (paper)

symbol	n	wr	net bps	total pnl ($)
XRP	14	43%	+15.1	+10.65
SOL	14	36%	-57.2	-39.27
BTC	13	38%	-20.2	-12.88
SUI	12	33%	-32.2	-19.09
ADA	11	36%	+3.6	+1.62
ETH	11	45%	+23.1	+12.77
LINK	10	40%	+8.5	+3.58
DOGE	9	44%	+60.7	+27.56
LTC	8	12%	-180.6	-72.21
DOT	8	38%	+29.4	+11.76
NEAR	7	71%	+232.9	+81.38
AVAX	7	29%	-99.9	-35.20
APT	7	14%	-162.3	-56.59
BNB	7	57%	-1.6	-1.21
UNI	7	43%	+6.6	+2.30
ICP	5	60%	+151.7	+37.92
ACE	4	25%	-105.3	-21.06
ARB	4	25%	-83.9	-16.37
SAGA	4	25%	-92.7	-18.55
FIL	4	0%	-197.2	-39.44
INJ	4	25%	-91.5	-18.30
TRX	4	25%	-35.1	-7.02
ONDO	4	50%	+83.2	+16.65
HYPE	4	25%	-87.3	-17.45
ETC	3	0%	-221.7	-33.25
OP	3	0%	-265.3	-39.66
ATOM	3	33%	-41.7	-6.36
BCH	3	33%	-32.2	-4.83
BLUR	3	67%	+200.3	+30.05
AAVE	3	0%	-260.6	-39.09
ZEREBRO	2	0%	-14.0	-1.40
RENDER	2	50%	+82.9	+8.29
CHILLGUY	2	0%	-14.0	-1.40
KAS	2	50%	+88.4	+8.84
XMR	2	0%	-262.7	-26.27
XLM	1	100%	+431.9	+21.60
GOAT	1	0%	-14.0	-0.70
HBAR	1	0%	-32.1	-1.60

Recent bounces (last 20 of 1)

time	sym	side	reason
06-28 00:11	XRP	Sell	circuit_breaker

Postmortem feed (last 10)

time	sym	side	pnl	narrative
no postmortems

More…