4
closed trades
25%
win rate
-13.90
total pnl ($)
1.234
weight
7d window — n=0 wr=0% pnl=+0.00
· venues=(unknown)
· horizon=—
· SL=—
· TP=—
· class=? in ?
Backtest evidence
run: 2026-05-19 07:32:39 (35.1d ago) · src: canon
verdict: REJECT
· strict: STRICT-FAIL
· batch:
fx
n: 8
· wr: 37.5%
· total_bps: -330.2
· mean_bps: -41.27
· sharpe: -0.27
· max_dd_bps: -669.8
gate: min_trades=— min_wr=— min_total_bps=— min_sharpe=— effective_days=—
Cumulative P&L (last 4 closed)
Last 100 trades
| time | sym | side | entry→exit | pnl | close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-29 04:36 | ETH | Sell | 2274.9→2329.5 | -19.92 | stop_loss |
| 04-27 05:22 | ETH | Sell | 2396.2→2329.1 | +21.68 | take_profit |
| 04-26 15:46 | ETH | Sell | 2315.2→2343.6 | -10.53 | timeout |
| 04-25 03:46 | ETH | Sell | 2305.3→2318 | -5.13 | timeout |
Paper vs Live
Paper (trades.jsonl)
4
closed
25%
win rate
-13.90
total pnl ($)
-43.4 bps
avg bps net
Live (dry_run=0)
0
closed
—
win rate
—
total pnl ($)
—
avg bps net
Live: 0 trades, insufficient sample
Per-symbol breakdown (paper)
| symbol | n | wr | net bps | total pnl ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 4 | 25% | -43.4 | -13.90 |
Recent bounces (last 20 of 0)
| time | sym | side | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| no bounces recorded | |||
Postmortem feed (last 10)
| time | sym | side | pnl | narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 05:22 | ETH | Sell | +21.68 | # Trade Analysis ETH was consolidating with mild weakness (down 2.57% in the last hour but essentially flat over 24 hours) when the position closed, suggesting the cascade trigger had already begun unwinding rather than accelerating into the target window.… |
| 04-26 15:46 | ETH | Sell | -10.53 | ETH was relatively calm with modest positive funding (0.001298%) and $1.86B open interest, showing no panic selling or acute deleveraging pressure at the time of exit. The thesis failed because the predicted liquidation cascade never triggered—despite 100% … |
| 04-25 03:46 | ETH | Sell | -5.13 | ETH traded flat with minimal directional conviction, gaining 0.09% in the hour before close while the broader market showed resilience (BTC +0.10% 1h, VIX likely still subdued). The thesis failed because the predicted liquidation cascade trigger never mater… |